Matchday 19 · Premier League 2015-16 · December 28, 2015
Norwich 2–0 Aston Villa: who deserved to win?
Norwich beat Aston Villa 2–0, and the replays lean Norwich’s way: 4 wins in 10, 2 for Aston Villa, 4 end level. Norwich made the better chances: 0.6 expected goals to 0.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Norwich City | 2 | 0.58 |
 Aston Villa | 0 | 0.32 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +38 Norwich lucky · −38 Aston Villa
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Norwich win 4, 4 end level, Aston Villa win 2.
- 1 NOR 1 AVL 0
- 2 NOR 1 AVL 0
- 3 NOR 1 AVL 0
- 4 NOR 2 AVL 0
- 5 NOR 0 AVL 0
- 6 NOR 1 AVL 1
- 7 NOR 0 AVL 0
- 8 NOR 0 AVL 0
- 9 NOR 0 AVL 1
- 10 NOR 0 AVL 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Norwich win 40%, 44% end level, Aston Villa win 16%. The line is what actually happened: Norwich by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Norwich by 3+ | 2.7% |
| Norwich by 2 | 9.0% |
| Norwich by 1 | 28.5% |
| Draw | 44.3% |
| Aston Villa by 1 | 13.1% |
| Aston Villa by 2 | 2.2% |
| Aston Villa by 3+ | 0.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Norwich | 9 | 2 | 0.58 | +1.42 |
 Aston Villa | 7 | 0 | 0.32 | −0.32 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 23' | Jonathan Howson scored from a shot | 0.14 |
| 86' | Dieumerci Mbokani Bezua scored from a shot | 0.11 |
When it happened
Norwich’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5' | Robert Brady didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 9% chance | +2% AVL |
| 2 | 15' | Jordan Ayew didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% NOR |
| 3 | 23' | Jonathan Howson scored from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +21% NOR |
| 4 | 37' | Graham Dorrans didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +1% AVL |
| 5 | 55' | Jonathan Howson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +1% AVL |
| 6 | 78' | Adama Traoré Diarra didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% NOR |
| 7 | 79' | Micah Richards didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% NOR |
| 8 | 86' | Dieumerci Mbokani Bezua scored from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +2% NOR |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Norwich 81% · draw 15% · Aston Villa 5%
- Final margin
- Norwich by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.3 for Norwich
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Norwich by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Norwich 40% · draw 44% · Aston Villa 16% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Norwich win 62% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 19 matches, 2015-16 · Norwich · Aston Villa
More from matchday 19, 2015-16
- Everton 3–4 Stoke Dec 28, 2015 · replay 37% for Stoke
- Watford 1–2 Tottenham Dec 28, 2015 · replay 39% for Tottenham
- Arsenal 2–0 Bournemouth Dec 28, 2015 · replay 89% for Arsenal
- West Ham 2–1 Southampton Dec 28, 2015 · replay 51% for West Ham
- Man United 0–0 Chelsea Dec 28, 2015 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- West Brom 1–0 Newcastle Dec 28, 2015 · replay 84% for West Brom
- Crystal Palace 0–0 Swansea Dec 28, 2015 · drawn; replay 45% draws
- Leicester 0–0 Man City Dec 29, 2015 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Sunderland 0–1 Liverpool Dec 30, 2015 · replay 83% for Liverpool