Matchday 19 · Premier League 2015-16 · December 28, 2015
West Ham 2–1 Southampton: who deserved to win?
West Ham beat Southampton 2–1, but the replays call it even: West Ham win 4 of 10, Southampton 3, 3 end level. West Ham made the better chances: 1.4 expected goals to 1.1. An own goal helped Southampton.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 West Ham United | 2 | 1.41 |
 Southampton | 1 | 1.09 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +49 West Ham lucky · −49 Southampton
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. West Ham win 4, 3 end level, Southampton win 3.
- 1 WHU 2 SOU 1
- 2 WHU 3 SOU 2
- 3 WHU 4 SOU 2
- 4 WHU 3 SOU 0
- 5 WHU 1 SOU 1
- 6 WHU 1 SOU 1
- 7 WHU 2 SOU 2
- 8 WHU 0 SOU 2
- 9 WHU 1 SOU 2
- 10 WHU 1 SOU 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
West Ham win 38%, 26% end level, Southampton win 36%. The line is what actually happened: West Ham by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| West Ham by 3+ | 6.4% |
| West Ham by 2 | 11.8% |
| West Ham by 1 | 19.5% |
| Draw | 26.4% |
| Southampton by 1 | 20.5% |
| Southampton by 2 | 9.7% |
| Southampton by 3+ | 5.7% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 West Ham | 13 | 2 | 1.41 | +0.59 |
 Southampton | 13 | 0 | 1.09 | −1.09 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 12' | Dušan Tadić didn’t score from a shot | 0.48 |
| 68' | Michail Antonio scored from a shot | 0.16 |
| 78' | Andy Carroll scored from a shot | 0.29 |
When it happened
West Ham’s chance of winning
As low as 14% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12' | Dušan Tadić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 48% chance | +12% WHU |
| 2 | 12' | Own goal by nan, for SouthamptonOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +25% SOU |
| 3 | 47' | James Collins didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% SOU |
| 4 | 47' | Andy Carroll didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +6% SOU |
| 5 | 55' | Andy Carroll didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +4% SOU |
| 6 | 68' | The game turned hereMichail Antonio scored from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +33% WHU |
| 7 | 78' | Michail Antonio didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +5% SOU |
| 8 | 78' | Andy Carroll scored from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +30% WHU |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
West Ham 72% · draw 18% · Southampton 11%
- Final margin
- West Ham by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.3 for West Ham
- Luck-adjusted margin
- West Ham by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- West Ham 38% · draw 26% · Southampton 36% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). West Ham win 51% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 19 matches, 2015-16 · West Ham · Southampton
More from matchday 19, 2015-16
- Everton 3–4 Stoke Dec 28, 2015 · replay 37% for Stoke
- Norwich 2–0 Aston Villa Dec 28, 2015 · replay 62% for Norwich
- Watford 1–2 Tottenham Dec 28, 2015 · replay 39% for Tottenham
- Arsenal 2–0 Bournemouth Dec 28, 2015 · replay 89% for Arsenal
- Man United 0–0 Chelsea Dec 28, 2015 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- West Brom 1–0 Newcastle Dec 28, 2015 · replay 84% for West Brom
- Crystal Palace 0–0 Swansea Dec 28, 2015 · drawn; replay 45% draws
- Leicester 0–0 Man City Dec 29, 2015 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Sunderland 0–1 Liverpool Dec 30, 2015 · replay 83% for Liverpool