Matchday 19 · Premier League 2015-16 · December 28, 2015
West Brom 1–0 Newcastle: who deserved to win?
West Brom beat Newcastle 1–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, West Brom win 8 of 10, 2 end level. West Brom made the better chances: 2.2 expected goals to 0.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 West Bromwich Albion | 1 | 2.20 |
 Newcastle United | 0 | 0.54 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +16 West Brom about even · −16 Newcastle
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. West Brom win 8, 2 end level, Newcastle win 0.
- 1 WBA 1 NEW 0
- 2 WBA 3 NEW 2
- 3 WBA 3 NEW 1
- 4 WBA 2 NEW 0
- 5 WBA 3 NEW 1
- 6 WBA 3 NEW 0
- 7 WBA 4 NEW 0
- 8 WBA 5 NEW 0
- 9 WBA 2 NEW 2
- 10 WBA 1 NEW 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
West Brom win 76%, 17% end level, Newcastle win 7%. The line is what actually happened: West Brom by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| West Brom by 3+ | 30.9% |
| West Brom by 2 | 22.3% |
| West Brom by 1 | 22.6% |
| Draw | 17.0% |
| Newcastle by 1 | 5.5% |
| Newcastle by 2 | 1.6% |
| Newcastle by 3+ | 0.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 West Brom | 22 | 1 | 2.20 | −1.20 |
 Newcastle | 7 | 0 | 0.54 | −0.54 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 77' | Darren Fletcher scored from a shot | 0.11 |
When it happened
West Brom’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | James Morrison didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +6% NEW |
| 2 | 9' | Victor Chinedu Anichebe didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +4% NEW |
| 3 | 54' | Paul Dummett didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +6% WBA |
| 4 | 60' | Aleksandar Mitrović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +5% WBA |
| 5 | 74' | Victor Chinedu Anichebe didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +6% NEW |
| 6 | 74' | Jonathan Grant Evans didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +9% NEW |
| 7 | 74' | Jonathan Grant Evans didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +9% NEW |
| 8 | 77' | Darren Fletcher scored from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +37% WBA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
West Brom 77% · draw 17% · Newcastle 7%
- Final margin
- West Brom by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for Newcastle
- Luck-adjusted margin
- West Brom by 1.5
- Replay with same day's form
- West Brom 76% · draw 17% · Newcastle 7% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). West Brom win 84% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 19 matches, 2015-16 · West Brom · Newcastle
More from matchday 19, 2015-16
- Everton 3–4 Stoke Dec 28, 2015 · replay 37% for Stoke
- Norwich 2–0 Aston Villa Dec 28, 2015 · replay 62% for Norwich
- Watford 1–2 Tottenham Dec 28, 2015 · replay 39% for Tottenham
- Arsenal 2–0 Bournemouth Dec 28, 2015 · replay 89% for Arsenal
- West Ham 2–1 Southampton Dec 28, 2015 · replay 51% for West Ham
- Man United 0–0 Chelsea Dec 28, 2015 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Crystal Palace 0–0 Swansea Dec 28, 2015 · drawn; replay 45% draws
- Leicester 0–0 Man City Dec 29, 2015 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Sunderland 0–1 Liverpool Dec 30, 2015 · replay 83% for Liverpool