Matchday 19 · Premier League 2015-16 · December 29, 2015
Leicester 0–0 Man City: who deserved to win?
Leicester and Man City drew 0–0. Replayed with the way both teams played, Leicester win 2 of 10, Man City 6, and 2 end level. Man City made the better chances: 1.7 expected goals to 0.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Leicester City | 0 | 0.89 |
 Manchester City | 0 | 1.70 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +18 Leicester about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Leicester win 2, 2 end level, Man City win 6.
- 1 LEI 1 MCI 0
- 2 LEI 2 MCI 0
- 3 LEI 2 MCI 2
- 4 LEI 2 MCI 2
- 5 LEI 0 MCI 4
- 6 LEI 0 MCI 3
- 7 LEI 0 MCI 2
- 8 LEI 1 MCI 2
- 9 LEI 1 MCI 2
- 10 LEI 0 MCI 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Leicester win 20%, 24% end level, Man City win 56%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Leicester by 3+ | 1.8% |
| Leicester by 2 | 4.5% |
| Leicester by 1 | 13.7% |
| Draw | 24.4% |
| Man City by 1 | 24.0% |
| Man City by 2 | 16.1% |
| Man City by 3+ | 15.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Leicester | 12 | 0 | 0.89 | −0.89 |
 Man City | 20 | 0 | 1.70 | −1.70 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 45' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo didn’t score from a shot | 0.52 |
When it happened
Leicester’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17' | Kevin De Bruyne didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +3% LEI |
| 2 | 26' | Raheem Sterling didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +6% LEI |
| 3 | 39' | Marc Albrighton didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +5% MCI |
| 4 | 39' | Jamie Vardy didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +7% MCI |
| 5 | 45' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 52% chance | +17% LEI |
| 6 | 59' | Marc Albrighton didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% MCI |
| 7 | 68' | Wilfried Guemiand Bony didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% LEI |
| 8 | 77' | Wilfried Guemiand Bony didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +6% LEI |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Leicester 18% · draw 23% · Man City 59%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.6 for Leicester
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Man City by 0.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Leicester 20% · draw 24% · Man City 56% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 19 matches, 2015-16 · Leicester · Man City
More from matchday 19, 2015-16
- Everton 3–4 Stoke Dec 28, 2015 · replay 37% for Stoke
- Norwich 2–0 Aston Villa Dec 28, 2015 · replay 62% for Norwich
- Watford 1–2 Tottenham Dec 28, 2015 · replay 39% for Tottenham
- Arsenal 2–0 Bournemouth Dec 28, 2015 · replay 89% for Arsenal
- West Ham 2–1 Southampton Dec 28, 2015 · replay 51% for West Ham
- Man United 0–0 Chelsea Dec 28, 2015 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- West Brom 1–0 Newcastle Dec 28, 2015 · replay 84% for West Brom
- Crystal Palace 0–0 Swansea Dec 28, 2015 · drawn; replay 45% draws
- Sunderland 0–1 Liverpool Dec 30, 2015 · replay 83% for Liverpool