Matchday 19 · Premier League 2015-16 · December 28, 2015
Everton 3–4 Stoke: who deserved to win?
Stoke beat Everton 4–3, but the replays lean toward Everton: 5 wins in 10 to Stoke’s 3, 2 end level. Everton made the better chances: 2.3 expected goals to 1.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Everton | 3 | 2.26 |
 Stoke City | 4 | 1.46 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +63 Stoke very lucky · −63 Everton
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Everton win 5, 2 end level, Stoke win 3.
- 1 EVE 2 STK 1
- 2 EVE 2 STK 1
- 3 EVE 2 STK 0
- 4 EVE 3 STK 0
- 5 EVE 6 STK 2
- 6 EVE 1 STK 1
- 7 EVE 1 STK 1
- 8 EVE 0 STK 3
- 9 EVE 2 STK 3
- 10 EVE 1 STK 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Everton win 52%, 21% end level, Stoke win 27%. The line is what actually happened: Stoke by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Everton by 3+ | 15.5% |
| Everton by 2 | 16.4% |
| Everton by 1 | 20.1% |
| Draw | 21.2% |
| Stoke by 1 | 14.5% |
| Stoke by 2 | 7.7% |
| Stoke by 3+ | 4.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Everton | 15 | 3 | 2.26 | +0.74 |
 Stoke | 8 (1 pen) | 4 | 1.46 | +2.54 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 15' | Xherdan Shaqiri scored from a shot | 0.35 |
| 21' | Romelu Lukaku Menama scored from a shot | 0.51 |
| 44' | Xherdan Shaqiri scored from a shot | 0.10 |
| 63' | Romelu Lukaku Menama scored from a shot | 0.17 |
| 70' | Gerard Deulofeu Lázaro scored from a shot | 0.84 |
| 79' | José Luis Sanmartín Mato scored from a shot | 0.05 |
| 90' | Marko Arnautović scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
Everton’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 95%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15' | Xherdan Shaqiri scored from a shotFinishing · 35% chance | +17% STK |
| 2 | 21' | Romelu Lukaku Menama scored from a shotFinishing · 51% chance | +13% EVE |
| 3 | 44' | Xherdan Shaqiri scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +29% STK |
| 4 | 63' | Romelu Lukaku Menama scored from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +31% EVE |
| 5 | 67' | Steven Naismith didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% STK |
| 6 | 70' | Gerard Deulofeu Lázaro scored from a shotFinishing · 84% chance | +6% EVE |
| 7 | 79' | The game turned hereJosé Luis Sanmartín Mato scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +40% STK |
| 8 | 90' | Marko Arnautović scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +11% STK |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Everton 57% · draw 24% · Stoke 19%
- Final margin
- Stoke by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.3 for Stoke
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Everton by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Everton 52% · draw 21% · Stoke 27% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Stoke win 37% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 19 matches, 2015-16 · Everton · Stoke
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