luckadjusted
Premier League Matchday 5 · 2026-27

Matchday 19 · Premier League 2015-16 · December 28, 2015

Crystal Palace 0–0 Swansea: who deserved to win?

Crystal Palace and Swansea drew 0–0. Replayed with the way both teams played, Crystal Palace win 4 of 10, Swansea 1, and 5 end level. Crystal Palace made the better chances: 0.7 expected goals to 0.2.

Full time

GoalsxG
Crystal Palace 0 0.65
Swansea City 0 0.19

December 28, 2015 · Selhurst Park · Referee: Neil Swarbrick

Luck index −15 Crystal Palace about even for the draw

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Crystal Palace win 4, 5 end level, Swansea win 1.

  1. 1 CRY 1 SWA 0
  2. 2 CRY 1 SWA 0
  3. 3 CRY 1 SWA 0
  4. 4 CRY 2 SWA 0
  5. 5 CRY 1 SWA 1
  6. 6 CRY 0 SWA 0
  7. 7 CRY 1 SWA 1
  8. 8 CRY 0 SWA 0
  9. 9 CRY 0 SWA 0
  10. 10 CRY 0 SWA 1

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

Crystal Palace win 43%, 45% end level, Swansea win 12%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.

Show as a table
After 90 minutes in the replaysShare of replays
Crystal Palace by 3+3.0%
Crystal Palace by 210.1%
Crystal Palace by 129.4%
Draw45.3%
Swansea by 110.7%
Swansea by 21.3%
Swansea by 3+0.1%

Where the luck was

FinishingShotsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Crystal Palace1000.65−0.65
Swansea500.19−0.19

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

When it happened

Crystal Palace’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while Crystal Palace was ahead in it, below while Swansea was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability for
1 47' Brede Hangeland didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance +3% SWA
2 48' Bafétimbi Gomis didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance +2% CRY
3 50' Scott Dann didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance +1% SWA
4 63' Matt Grimes didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance +2% CRY
5 73' Patrick Bamford didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance +9% SWA
6 81' Jordon Mutch didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance +1% SWA
7 88' Wilfried Zaha didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance +5% SWA
8 91' Gylfi Þór Sigurðsson didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 4% chance +2% CRY

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Crystal Palace 45% · draw 44% · Swansea 11%

Final margin
even
Luck in goals
0.3 for Swansea
Luck-adjusted margin
Crystal Palace by 0.3
Replay with same day's form
Crystal Palace 43% · draw 45% · Swansea 12% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).

All matchday 19 matches, 2015-16 · Crystal Palace · Swansea

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