Matchday 20 · Premier League 2015-16 · January 2, 2016
Arsenal 1–0 Newcastle: who deserved to win?
Arsenal beat Newcastle 1–0, and the replays lean Arsenal’s way: 5 wins in 10, 3 for Newcastle, 2 end level. Arsenal made the better chances: 1.9 expected goals to 1.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Arsenal | 1 | 1.86 |
 Newcastle United | 0 | 1.54 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +40 Arsenal lucky · −40 Newcastle
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Arsenal win 5, 2 end level, Newcastle win 3.
- 1 ARS 2 NEW 1
- 2 ARS 3 NEW 2
- 3 ARS 2 NEW 0
- 4 ARS 3 NEW 1
- 5 ARS 3 NEW 0
- 6 ARS 2 NEW 2
- 7 ARS 2 NEW 2
- 8 ARS 1 NEW 4
- 9 ARS 0 NEW 2
- 10 ARS 2 NEW 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Arsenal win 49%, 22% end level, Newcastle win 29%. The line is what actually happened: Arsenal by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Arsenal by 3+ | 14.3% |
| Arsenal by 2 | 14.6% |
| Arsenal by 1 | 20.5% |
| Draw | 22.0% |
| Newcastle by 1 | 15.7% |
| Newcastle by 2 | 7.8% |
| Newcastle by 3+ | 5.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Arsenal | 15 | 1 | 1.86 | −0.86 |
 Newcastle | 15 | 0 | 1.54 | −1.54 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 48' | Aleksandar Mitrović didn’t score from a shot | 0.35 |
| 71' | Laurent Koscielny scored from a shot | 0.53 |
When it happened
Arsenal’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42' | Georginio Wijnaldum didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +4% ARS |
| 2 | 47' | Georginio Wijnaldum didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +8% ARS |
| 3 | 47' | Olivier Giroud didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +6% NEW |
| 4 | 48' | Aleksandar Mitrović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 35% chance | +11% ARS |
| 5 | 64' | Chancel Mbemba Mangulu didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +5% ARS |
| 6 | 71' | Laurent Koscielny scored from a shotFinishing · 53% chance | +18% ARS |
| 7 | 80' | Aleksandar Mitrović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +5% ARS |
| 8 | 84' | Georginio Wijnaldum didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +4% ARS |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Arsenal 48% · draw 23% · Newcastle 29%
- Final margin
- Arsenal by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for Arsenal
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Arsenal by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Arsenal 49% · draw 22% · Newcastle 29% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Arsenal win 60% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 20, 2015-16
- Leicester 0–0 Bournemouth Jan 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 14% draws
- Sunderland 3–1 Aston Villa Jan 2, 2016 · replay 75% for Sunderland
- Norwich 1–0 Southampton Jan 2, 2016 · replay 55% for Norwich
- West Brom 2–1 Stoke Jan 2, 2016 · replay 82% for West Brom
- West Ham 2–0 Liverpool Jan 2, 2016 · replay 76% for West Ham
- Man United 2–1 Swansea Jan 2, 2016 · replay 75% for Man United
- Watford 1–2 Man City Jan 2, 2016 · replay 44% for Man City
- Crystal Palace 0–3 Chelsea Jan 3, 2016 · replay 79% for Chelsea
- Everton 1–1 Tottenham Jan 3, 2016 · drawn; replay 35% draws