Matchday 20 · Premier League 2015-16 · January 3, 2016
Crystal Palace 0–3 Chelsea: who deserved to win?
Chelsea beat Crystal Palace 3–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Chelsea win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Chelsea made the better chances: 1.9 expected goals to 0.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Crystal Palace | 0 | 0.92 |
 Chelsea | 3 | 1.88 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +21 Chelsea about even · −21 Crystal Palace
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Crystal Palace win 1, 2 end level, Chelsea win 7.
- 1 CRY 1 CHE 0
- 2 CRY 1 CHE 1
- 3 CRY 1 CHE 1
- 4 CRY 0 CHE 5
- 5 CRY 0 CHE 3
- 6 CRY 0 CHE 2
- 7 CRY 0 CHE 2
- 8 CRY 1 CHE 3
- 9 CRY 0 CHE 1
- 10 CRY 3 CHE 4
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Crystal Palace win 12%, 18% end level, Chelsea win 70%. The line is what actually happened: Chelsea by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Crystal Palace by 3+ | 0.9% |
| Crystal Palace by 2 | 2.8% |
| Crystal Palace by 1 | 8.7% |
| Draw | 17.9% |
| Chelsea by 1 | 22.2% |
| Chelsea by 2 | 20.6% |
| Chelsea by 3+ | 26.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Crystal Palace | 8 | 0 | 0.92 | −0.92 |
 Chelsea | 10 | 3 | 1.88 | +1.12 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 28' | Oscar dos Santos Emboaba Júnior scored from a shot | 0.80 |
| 58' | Wilfried Zaha didn’t score from a shot | 0.33 |
| 59' | Willian Borges da Silva scored from a shot | 0.05 |
| 65' | Diego da Silva Costa scored from a shot | 0.59 |
When it happened
Crystal Palace’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17' | Pedro Eliezer Rodríguez Ledesma didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% CRY |
| 2 | 23' | Damien Delaney didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +5% CHE |
| 3 | 24' | Fraizer Campbell didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +4% CHE |
| 4 | 28' | Oscar dos Santos Emboaba Júnior scored from a shotFinishing · 80% chance | +6% CHE |
| 5 | 35' | César Azpilicueta Tanco didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +2% CRY |
| 6 | 52' | Kurt Happy Zouma didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +2% CRY |
| 7 | 58' | Wilfried Zaha didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 33% chance | +12% CHE |
| 8 | 59' | Willian Borges da Silva scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +14% CHE |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Crystal Palace 3% · draw 9% · Chelsea 88%
- Final margin
- Chelsea by 3
- Luck in goals
- 1.5 for Chelsea
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Chelsea by 1.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Crystal Palace 12% · draw 18% · Chelsea 70% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Chelsea win 79% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 20, 2015-16
- Leicester 0–0 Bournemouth Jan 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 14% draws
- Sunderland 3–1 Aston Villa Jan 2, 2016 · replay 75% for Sunderland
- Arsenal 1–0 Newcastle Jan 2, 2016 · replay 60% for Arsenal
- Norwich 1–0 Southampton Jan 2, 2016 · replay 55% for Norwich
- West Brom 2–1 Stoke Jan 2, 2016 · replay 82% for West Brom
- West Ham 2–0 Liverpool Jan 2, 2016 · replay 76% for West Ham
- Man United 2–1 Swansea Jan 2, 2016 · replay 75% for Man United
- Watford 1–2 Man City Jan 2, 2016 · replay 44% for Man City
- Everton 1–1 Tottenham Jan 3, 2016 · drawn; replay 35% draws