Matchday 20 · Premier League 2015-16 · January 2, 2016
West Brom 2–1 Stoke: who deserved to win?
West Brom beat Stoke 2–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, West Brom win 7 of 10, 2 end level. West Brom made the better chances: 2.5 expected goals to 0.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 West Bromwich Albion | 2 | 2.53 |
 Stoke City | 1 | 0.84 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +18 West Brom about even · −18 Stoke
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. West Brom win 7, 2 end level, Stoke win 1.
- 1 WBA 2 STK 1
- 2 WBA 3 STK 2
- 3 WBA 3 STK 1
- 4 WBA 2 STK 0
- 5 WBA 3 STK 0
- 6 WBA 3 STK 0
- 7 WBA 5 STK 0
- 8 WBA 2 STK 2
- 9 WBA 1 STK 1
- 10 WBA 1 STK 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
West Brom win 75%, 15% end level, Stoke win 10%. The line is what actually happened: West Brom by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| West Brom by 3+ | 33.1% |
| West Brom by 2 | 20.8% |
| West Brom by 1 | 20.9% |
| Draw | 15.3% |
| Stoke by 1 | 6.9% |
| Stoke by 2 | 2.2% |
| Stoke by 3+ | 0.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 West Brom | 18 | 2 | 2.53 | −0.53 |
 Stoke | 11 | 1 | 0.84 | +0.16 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 14' | Jonathan Grant Evans didn’t score from a shot | 0.49 |
| 59' | Stéphane Sessègnon scored from a shot | 0.22 |
| 80' | Jonathan Walters scored from a shot | 0.31 |
| 91' | Jonathan Grant Evans scored from a shot | 0.83 |
When it happened
West Brom’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14' | Jonathan Grant Evans didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 49% chance | +11% STK |
| 2 | 51' | Xherdan Shaqiri didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +4% WBA |
| 3 | 59' | Stéphane Sessègnon scored from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +26% WBA |
| 4 | 80' | Jonathan Walters scored from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +30% STK |
| 5 | 91' | James Morrison didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +4% STK |
| 6 | 91' | James Morrison didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +5% STK |
| 7 | 91' | Craig Dawson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +6% STK |
| 8 | 91' | Jonathan Grant Evans scored from a shotFinishing · 83% chance | +9% WBA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
West Brom 79% · draw 15% · Stoke 6%
- Final margin
- West Brom by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for Stoke
- Luck-adjusted margin
- West Brom by 1.5
- Replay with same day's form
- West Brom 75% · draw 15% · Stoke 10% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). West Brom win 82% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 20 matches, 2015-16 · West Brom · Stoke
More from matchday 20, 2015-16
- Leicester 0–0 Bournemouth Jan 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 14% draws
- Sunderland 3–1 Aston Villa Jan 2, 2016 · replay 75% for Sunderland
- Arsenal 1–0 Newcastle Jan 2, 2016 · replay 60% for Arsenal
- Norwich 1–0 Southampton Jan 2, 2016 · replay 55% for Norwich
- West Ham 2–0 Liverpool Jan 2, 2016 · replay 76% for West Ham
- Man United 2–1 Swansea Jan 2, 2016 · replay 75% for Man United
- Watford 1–2 Man City Jan 2, 2016 · replay 44% for Man City
- Crystal Palace 0–3 Chelsea Jan 3, 2016 · replay 79% for Chelsea
- Everton 1–1 Tottenham Jan 3, 2016 · drawn; replay 35% draws