Matchday 20 · Premier League 2015-16 · January 2, 2016
Man United 2–1 Swansea: who deserved to win?
Man United beat Swansea 2–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Man United win 6 of 10, 2 end level. Man United made the better chances: 1.5 expected goals to 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Manchester United | 2 | 1.51 |
 Swansea City | 1 | 0.62 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +25 Man United about even · −25 Swansea
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Man United win 6, 2 end level, Swansea win 2.
- 1 MUN 3 SWA 2
- 2 MUN 1 SWA 0
- 3 MUN 2 SWA 1
- 4 MUN 2 SWA 0
- 5 MUN 3 SWA 1
- 6 MUN 4 SWA 0
- 7 MUN 1 SWA 1
- 8 MUN 0 SWA 0
- 9 MUN 0 SWA 2
- 10 MUN 0 SWA 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Man United win 63%, 24% end level, Swansea win 13%. The line is what actually happened: Man United by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Man United by 3+ | 14.7% |
| Man United by 2 | 19.7% |
| Man United by 1 | 28.9% |
| Draw | 24.1% |
| Swansea by 1 | 9.9% |
| Swansea by 2 | 2.3% |
| Swansea by 3+ | 0.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Man United | 19 | 2 | 1.51 | +0.49 |
 Swansea | 9 | 1 | 0.62 | +0.38 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 46' | Anthony Martial scored from a shot | 0.11 |
| 69' | Gylfi Þór Sigurðsson scored from a shot | 0.06 |
| 76' | Wayne Mark Rooney scored from a shot | 0.23 |
When it happened
Man United’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0' | Ander Herrera Agüera didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +3% SWA |
| 2 | 32' | Juan Manuel Mata García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +3% SWA |
| 3 | 46' | Anthony Martial scored from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +26% MUN |
| 4 | 63' | André Ayew Pelé didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +5% MUN |
| 5 | 69' | Gylfi Þór Sigurðsson scored from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +35% SWA |
| 6 | 72' | Gylfi Þór Sigurðsson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +4% MUN |
| 7 | 76' | Wayne Mark Rooney scored from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +32% MUN |
| 8 | 94' | Łukasz Fabiański didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +5% MUN |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Man United 59% · draw 26% · Swansea 15%
- Final margin
- Man United by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.1 for Man United
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Man United by 0.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Man United 63% · draw 24% · Swansea 13% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Man United win 75% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 20 matches, 2015-16 · Man United · Swansea
More from matchday 20, 2015-16
- Leicester 0–0 Bournemouth Jan 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 14% draws
- Sunderland 3–1 Aston Villa Jan 2, 2016 · replay 75% for Sunderland
- Arsenal 1–0 Newcastle Jan 2, 2016 · replay 60% for Arsenal
- Norwich 1–0 Southampton Jan 2, 2016 · replay 55% for Norwich
- West Brom 2–1 Stoke Jan 2, 2016 · replay 82% for West Brom
- West Ham 2–0 Liverpool Jan 2, 2016 · replay 76% for West Ham
- Watford 1–2 Man City Jan 2, 2016 · replay 44% for Man City
- Crystal Palace 0–3 Chelsea Jan 3, 2016 · replay 79% for Chelsea
- Everton 1–1 Tottenham Jan 3, 2016 · drawn; replay 35% draws