Matchday 20 · Premier League 2015-16 · January 2, 2016
Norwich 1–0 Southampton: who deserved to win?
Norwich beat Southampton 1–0, but the replays call it even: Norwich win 4 of 10, Southampton 3, 3 end level. The chances were close to even (1.2 expected goals to 1.0).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Norwich City | 1 | 1.17 |
 Southampton | 0 | 0.99 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +45 Norwich lucky · −45 Southampton
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Norwich win 4, 3 end level, Southampton win 3.
- 1 NOR 2 SOU 1
- 2 NOR 1 SOU 0
- 3 NOR 3 SOU 1
- 4 NOR 3 SOU 0
- 5 NOR 1 SOU 1
- 6 NOR 1 SOU 1
- 7 NOR 2 SOU 2
- 8 NOR 0 SOU 2
- 9 NOR 1 SOU 2
- 10 NOR 0 SOU 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Norwich win 40%, 29% end level, Southampton win 31%. The line is what actually happened: Norwich by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Norwich by 3+ | 6.0% |
| Norwich by 2 | 11.8% |
| Norwich by 1 | 22.4% |
| Draw | 29.0% |
| Southampton by 1 | 19.4% |
| Southampton by 2 | 7.9% |
| Southampton by 3+ | 3.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Norwich | 10 | 1 | 1.17 | −0.17 |
 Southampton | 10 | 0 | 0.99 | −0.99 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 29' | Dieumerci Mbokani Bezua didn’t score from a shot | 0.40 |
| 75' | Alexander Banor Tettey scored from a shot | 0.06 |
When it happened
Norwich’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3' | Shane Long didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +4% NOR |
| 2 | 10' | Jonathan Howson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +4% SOU |
| 3 | 29' | Dieumerci Mbokani Bezua didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 40% chance | +10% SOU |
| 4 | 31' | Shane Long didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +7% NOR |
| 5 | 36' | Virgil van Dijk didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% NOR |
| 6 | 43' | Dieumerci Mbokani Bezua didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +6% SOU |
| 7 | 67' | Dušan Tadić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% NOR |
| 8 | 75' | Alexander Banor Tettey scored from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +38% NOR |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Norwich 42% · draw 29% · Southampton 29%
- Final margin
- Norwich by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.6 for Norwich
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Norwich by 0.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Norwich 40% · draw 29% · Southampton 31% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Norwich win 55% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 20 matches, 2015-16 · Norwich · Southampton
More from matchday 20, 2015-16
- Leicester 0–0 Bournemouth Jan 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 14% draws
- Sunderland 3–1 Aston Villa Jan 2, 2016 · replay 75% for Sunderland
- Arsenal 1–0 Newcastle Jan 2, 2016 · replay 60% for Arsenal
- West Brom 2–1 Stoke Jan 2, 2016 · replay 82% for West Brom
- West Ham 2–0 Liverpool Jan 2, 2016 · replay 76% for West Ham
- Man United 2–1 Swansea Jan 2, 2016 · replay 75% for Man United
- Watford 1–2 Man City Jan 2, 2016 · replay 44% for Man City
- Crystal Palace 0–3 Chelsea Jan 3, 2016 · replay 79% for Chelsea
- Everton 1–1 Tottenham Jan 3, 2016 · drawn; replay 35% draws