Matchday 20 · Premier League 2015-16 · January 3, 2016
Everton 1–1 Tottenham: who deserved to win?
Everton and Tottenham drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Everton win 3 of 10, Tottenham 4, and 3 end level. The chances were close to even (0.7 expected goals to 0.8).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Everton | 1 | 0.72 |
 Tottenham Hotspur | 1 | 0.83 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −1 Everton about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Everton win 3, 3 end level, Tottenham win 4.
- 1 EVE 1 TOT 0
- 2 EVE 1 TOT 0
- 3 EVE 2 TOT 0
- 4 EVE 1 TOT 1
- 5 EVE 1 TOT 1
- 6 EVE 0 TOT 0
- 7 EVE 0 TOT 2
- 8 EVE 1 TOT 2
- 9 EVE 0 TOT 1
- 10 EVE 0 TOT 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Everton win 34%, 35% end level, Tottenham win 31%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Everton by 3+ | 2.9% |
| Everton by 2 | 8.4% |
| Everton by 1 | 22.5% |
| Draw | 34.7% |
| Tottenham by 1 | 21.4% |
| Tottenham by 2 | 8.0% |
| Tottenham by 3+ | 2.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Everton | 12 | 1 | 0.72 | +0.28 |
 Tottenham | 19 | 1 | 0.83 | +0.17 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 21' | Aaron Lennon scored from a shot | 0.04 |
| 45' | Bamidele Alli scored from a shot | 0.10 |
When it happened
Everton’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17' | Erik Lamela didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 8% chance | +2% EVE |
| 2 | 21' | Aaron Lennon scored from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +23% EVE |
| 3 | 39' | Bamidele Alli didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% EVE |
| 4 | 45' | Bamidele Alli scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +26% TOT |
| 5 | 51' | Harry Kane didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +4% EVE |
| 6 | 78' | José Ramiro Funes Mori didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +6% TOT |
| 7 | 91' | Heung-Min Son didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% EVE |
| 8 | 92' | Romelu Lukaku Menama didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% TOT |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Everton 30% · draw 35% · Tottenham 35%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.1 for Everton
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Tottenham by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Everton 34% · draw 35% · Tottenham 31% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 20, 2015-16
- Leicester 0–0 Bournemouth Jan 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 14% draws
- Sunderland 3–1 Aston Villa Jan 2, 2016 · replay 75% for Sunderland
- Arsenal 1–0 Newcastle Jan 2, 2016 · replay 60% for Arsenal
- Norwich 1–0 Southampton Jan 2, 2016 · replay 55% for Norwich
- West Brom 2–1 Stoke Jan 2, 2016 · replay 82% for West Brom
- West Ham 2–0 Liverpool Jan 2, 2016 · replay 76% for West Ham
- Man United 2–1 Swansea Jan 2, 2016 · replay 75% for Man United
- Watford 1–2 Man City Jan 2, 2016 · replay 44% for Man City
- Crystal Palace 0–3 Chelsea Jan 3, 2016 · replay 79% for Chelsea