Matchday 20 · Premier League 2015-16 · January 2, 2016
Sunderland 3–1 Aston Villa: who deserved to win?
Sunderland beat Aston Villa 3–1, and the replays lean Sunderland’s way: 6 wins in 10, 1 for Aston Villa, 3 end level. Sunderland made the better chances: 1.1 expected goals to 0.4. An own goal helped Sunderland.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Sunderland | 3 | 1.13 |
 Aston Villa | 1 | 0.42 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +25 Sunderland lucky · −25 Aston Villa
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sunderland win 6, 3 end level, Aston Villa win 1.
- 1 SUN 1 AVL 0
- 2 SUN 1 AVL 0
- 3 SUN 2 AVL 1
- 4 SUN 2 AVL 0
- 5 SUN 2 AVL 0
- 6 SUN 3 AVL 0
- 7 SUN 2 AVL 2
- 8 SUN 0 AVL 0
- 9 SUN 0 AVL 0
- 10 SUN 0 AVL 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Sunderland win 60%, 29% end level, Aston Villa win 11%. The line is what actually happened: Sunderland by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sunderland by 3+ | 11.1% |
| Sunderland by 2 | 18.3% |
| Sunderland by 1 | 30.6% |
| Draw | 29.0% |
| Aston Villa by 1 | 8.8% |
| Aston Villa by 2 | 2.0% |
| Aston Villa by 3+ | 0.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sunderland | 13 | 2 | 1.13 | +0.87 |
 Aston Villa | 8 | 1 | 0.42 | +0.58 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 62' | Carles Gil de Pareja Vicent scored from a shot | 0.07 |
| 71' | Jermain Defoe scored from a shot | 0.11 |
| 91' | Jermain Defoe scored from a shot | 0.21 |
When it happened
Sunderland’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | Duncan Watmore didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% AVL |
| 2 | 5' | Leandro Bacuna didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% SUN |
| 3 | 7' | Jordan Veretout didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% SUN |
| 4 | 12' | Duncan Watmore didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% AVL |
| 5 | 16' | Fabio Borini didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% AVL |
| 6 | 29' | Own goal by nan, for SunderlandOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +24% SUN |
| 7 | 62' | Carles Gil de Pareja Vicent scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +32% AVL |
| 8 | 71' | Jermain Defoe scored from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +34% SUN |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sunderland 56% · draw 31% · Aston Villa 14%
- Final margin
- Sunderland by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.2 for Sunderland
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Sunderland by 0.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Sunderland 60% · draw 29% · Aston Villa 11% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Sunderland win 75% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 20, 2015-16
- Leicester 0–0 Bournemouth Jan 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 14% draws
- Arsenal 1–0 Newcastle Jan 2, 2016 · replay 60% for Arsenal
- Norwich 1–0 Southampton Jan 2, 2016 · replay 55% for Norwich
- West Brom 2–1 Stoke Jan 2, 2016 · replay 82% for West Brom
- West Ham 2–0 Liverpool Jan 2, 2016 · replay 76% for West Ham
- Man United 2–1 Swansea Jan 2, 2016 · replay 75% for Man United
- Watford 1–2 Man City Jan 2, 2016 · replay 44% for Man City
- Crystal Palace 0–3 Chelsea Jan 3, 2016 · replay 79% for Chelsea
- Everton 1–1 Tottenham Jan 3, 2016 · drawn; replay 35% draws