Matchday 20 · Premier League 2015-16 · January 2, 2016
Watford 1–2 Man City: who deserved to win?
Man City beat Watford 2–1, but the replays lean toward Watford: 4 wins in 10 to Man City’s 3, 3 end level. The chances were close to even (1.1 expected goals to 0.9). An own goal helped Watford.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Watford | 1 | 1.08 |
 Manchester City | 2 | 0.94 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +56 Man City lucky · −56 Watford
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Watford win 4, 3 end level, Man City win 3.
- 1 WAT 1 MCI 0
- 2 WAT 1 MCI 0
- 3 WAT 2 MCI 0
- 4 WAT 3 MCI 0
- 5 WAT 0 MCI 0
- 6 WAT 0 MCI 0
- 7 WAT 2 MCI 2
- 8 WAT 0 MCI 2
- 9 WAT 1 MCI 2
- 10 WAT 1 MCI 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Watford win 42%, 29% end level, Man City win 29%. The line is what actually happened: Man City by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Watford by 3+ | 5.9% |
| Watford by 2 | 12.4% |
| Watford by 1 | 23.5% |
| Draw | 28.7% |
| Man City by 1 | 19.4% |
| Man City by 2 | 7.4% |
| Man City by 3+ | 2.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Watford | 11 | 0 | 1.08 | −1.08 |
 Man City | 16 | 2 | 0.94 | +1.06 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 78' | Etienne Capoue didn’t score from a shot | 0.42 |
| 81' | Gnégnéri Yaya Touré scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 83' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo scored from a shot | 0.07 |
When it happened
Watford’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 95%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12' | Odion Jude Ighalo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +5% MCI |
| 2 | 28' | Fernando Luiz Rosa didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +6% WAT |
| 3 | 45' | Troy Deeney didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% MCI |
| 4 | 54' | Own goal by nan, for WatfordOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +30% WAT |
| 5 | 69' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% WAT |
| 6 | 81' | Gnégnéri Yaya Touré scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +40% MCI |
| 7 | 83' | The game turned hereSergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +43% MCI |
| 8 | 87' | Odion Jude Ighalo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +6% MCI |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Watford 15% · draw 25% · Man City 60%
- Final margin
- Man City by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.6 for Man City
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Man City by 0.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Watford 42% · draw 29% · Man City 29% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Man City win 44% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 20 matches, 2015-16 · Watford · Man City
More from matchday 20, 2015-16
- Leicester 0–0 Bournemouth Jan 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 14% draws
- Sunderland 3–1 Aston Villa Jan 2, 2016 · replay 75% for Sunderland
- Arsenal 1–0 Newcastle Jan 2, 2016 · replay 60% for Arsenal
- Norwich 1–0 Southampton Jan 2, 2016 · replay 55% for Norwich
- West Brom 2–1 Stoke Jan 2, 2016 · replay 82% for West Brom
- West Ham 2–0 Liverpool Jan 2, 2016 · replay 76% for West Ham
- Man United 2–1 Swansea Jan 2, 2016 · replay 75% for Man United
- Crystal Palace 0–3 Chelsea Jan 3, 2016 · replay 79% for Chelsea
- Everton 1–1 Tottenham Jan 3, 2016 · drawn; replay 35% draws