Matchday 20 · Premier League 2015-16 · January 2, 2016
West Ham 2–0 Liverpool: who deserved to win?
West Ham beat Liverpool 2–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, West Ham win 7 of 10, 2 end level. West Ham made the better chances: 2.2 expected goals to 1.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 West Ham United | 2 | 2.16 |
 Liverpool | 0 | 1.82 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +24 West Ham about even · −24 Liverpool
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. West Ham win 7, 2 end level, Liverpool win 1.
- 1 WHU 3 LIV 2
- 2 WHU 2 LIV 1
- 3 WHU 4 LIV 2
- 4 WHU 2 LIV 0
- 5 WHU 5 LIV 2
- 6 WHU 6 LIV 3
- 7 WHU 5 LIV 0
- 8 WHU 2 LIV 2
- 9 WHU 2 LIV 2
- 10 WHU 1 LIV 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
West Ham win 68%, 16% end level, Liverpool win 16%. The line is what actually happened: West Ham by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| West Ham by 3+ | 30.6% |
| West Ham by 2 | 18.8% |
| West Ham by 1 | 18.9% |
| Draw | 16.0% |
| Liverpool by 1 | 9.3% |
| Liverpool by 2 | 4.1% |
| Liverpool by 3+ | 2.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 West Ham | 17 | 2 | 2.16 | −0.16 |
 Liverpool | 23 | 0 | 1.82 | −1.82 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 9' | Michail Antonio scored from a shot | 0.29 |
| 33' | Roberto Firmino Barbosa de Oliveira didn’t score from a shot | 0.59 |
| 54' | Andy Carroll scored from a shot | 0.07 |
| 68' | Michail Antonio didn’t score from a shot | 0.52 |
When it happened
West Ham’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9' | Michail Antonio scored from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +16% WHU |
| 2 | 16' | Michail Antonio didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +2% LIV |
| 3 | 20' | Michail Antonio didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +2% LIV |
| 4 | 29' | Enner Remberto Valencia Lastra didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +2% LIV |
| 5 | 33' | Roberto Firmino Barbosa de Oliveira didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 59% chance | +16% WHU |
| 6 | 50' | Christian Benteke Liolo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% WHU |
| 7 | 54' | Andy Carroll scored from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +10% WHU |
| 8 | 77' | Lucas Pezzini Leiva didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +2% WHU |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
West Ham 68% · draw 17% · Liverpool 15%
- Final margin
- West Ham by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.2 for West Ham
- Luck-adjusted margin
- West Ham by 0.8
- Replay with same day's form
- West Ham 68% · draw 16% · Liverpool 16% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). West Ham win 76% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 20, 2015-16
- Leicester 0–0 Bournemouth Jan 2, 2016 · drawn; replay 14% draws
- Sunderland 3–1 Aston Villa Jan 2, 2016 · replay 75% for Sunderland
- Arsenal 1–0 Newcastle Jan 2, 2016 · replay 60% for Arsenal
- Norwich 1–0 Southampton Jan 2, 2016 · replay 55% for Norwich
- West Brom 2–1 Stoke Jan 2, 2016 · replay 82% for West Brom
- Man United 2–1 Swansea Jan 2, 2016 · replay 75% for Man United
- Watford 1–2 Man City Jan 2, 2016 · replay 44% for Man City
- Crystal Palace 0–3 Chelsea Jan 3, 2016 · replay 79% for Chelsea
- Everton 1–1 Tottenham Jan 3, 2016 · drawn; replay 35% draws