Matchday 20 · Premier League 2015-16 · January 2, 2016
Leicester 0–0 Bournemouth: who deserved to win?
Leicester and Bournemouth drew 0–0. Replayed with the way both teams played, Leicester win 8 of 10, Bournemouth 1, and 1 end level. Leicester made the better chances: 2.8 expected goals to 0.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Leicester City | 0 | 2.82 |
 AFC Bournemouth | 0 | 0.94 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −33 Leicester unlucky for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Leicester win 8, 1 ends level, Bournemouth win 1.
- 1 LEI 3 BOU 2
- 2 LEI 3 BOU 2
- 3 LEI 2 BOU 0
- 4 LEI 4 BOU 2
- 5 LEI 4 BOU 1
- 6 LEI 3 BOU 0
- 7 LEI 4 BOU 0
- 8 LEI 5 BOU 0
- 9 LEI 1 BOU 1
- 10 LEI 1 BOU 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Leicester win 76%, 14% end level, Bournemouth win 10%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Leicester by 3+ | 35.6% |
| Leicester by 2 | 21.4% |
| Leicester by 1 | 19.3% |
| Draw | 13.8% |
| Bournemouth by 1 | 6.5% |
| Bournemouth by 2 | 2.6% |
| Bournemouth by 3+ | 0.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Leicester | 17 (1 pen) | 0 | 2.82 | −2.82 |
 Bournemouth | 10 | 0 | 0.94 | −0.94 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 13' | Joshua King didn’t score from a shot | 0.38 |
| 25' | Jamie Vardy didn’t score from a shot | 0.58 |
| 50' | Wes Morgan didn’t score from a shot | 0.64 |
| 58' | Riyad Mahrez didn’t score from a penalty | 0.78 |
When it happened
Leicester’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13' | Joshua King didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 38% chance | +10% LEI |
| 2 | 25' | Jamie Vardy didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 58% chance | +14% BOU |
| 3 | 36' | Dan Gosling didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +8% LEI |
| 4 | 37' | Jamie Vardy didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% BOU |
| 5 | 50' | Jamie Vardy didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% BOU |
| 6 | 50' | Wes Morgan didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 64% chance | +20% BOU |
| 7 | 58' | Riyad Mahrez didn’t score from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +26% BOU |
| 8 | 75' | N''Golo Kanté didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 25% chance | +10% BOU |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Leicester 83% · draw 12% · Bournemouth 5%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 1.4 for Bournemouth
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Leicester by 1.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Leicester 76% · draw 14% · Bournemouth 10% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 20 matches, 2015-16 · Leicester · Bournemouth
More from matchday 20, 2015-16
- Sunderland 3–1 Aston Villa Jan 2, 2016 · replay 75% for Sunderland
- Arsenal 1–0 Newcastle Jan 2, 2016 · replay 60% for Arsenal
- Norwich 1–0 Southampton Jan 2, 2016 · replay 55% for Norwich
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- West Ham 2–0 Liverpool Jan 2, 2016 · replay 76% for West Ham
- Man United 2–1 Swansea Jan 2, 2016 · replay 75% for Man United
- Watford 1–2 Man City Jan 2, 2016 · replay 44% for Man City
- Crystal Palace 0–3 Chelsea Jan 3, 2016 · replay 79% for Chelsea
- Everton 1–1 Tottenham Jan 3, 2016 · drawn; replay 35% draws