Matchday 23 · Premier League 2015-16 · January 23, 2016
Leicester 3–0 Stoke: who deserved to win?
Leicester beat Stoke 3–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Leicester win 9 of 10, 1 end level. Leicester made the better chances: 1.9 expected goals to 0.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Leicester City | 3 | 1.87 |
 Stoke City | 0 | 0.15 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +6 Leicester about even · −6 Stoke
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Leicester win 9, 1 ends level, Stoke win 0.
- 1 LEI 1 STK 0
- 2 LEI 1 STK 0
- 3 LEI 2 STK 0
- 4 LEI 2 STK 0
- 5 LEI 2 STK 0
- 6 LEI 3 STK 0
- 7 LEI 3 STK 0
- 8 LEI 4 STK 0
- 9 LEI 5 STK 0
- 10 LEI 0 STK 0
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Leicester win 89%, 10% end level, Stoke win 1%. The line is what actually happened: Leicester by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Leicester by 3+ | 42.0% |
| Leicester by 2 | 26.0% |
| Leicester by 1 | 20.6% |
| Draw | 10.0% |
| Stoke by 1 | 1.3% |
| Stoke by 2 | 0.1% |
| Stoke by 3+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Leicester | 14 | 3 | 1.87 | +1.13 |
 Stoke | 3 | 0 | 0.15 | −0.15 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 41' | Danny Drinkwater scored from a shot | 0.03 |
| 65' | Jamie Vardy scored from a shot | 0.28 |
| 86' | José Leonardo Ulloa scored from a shot | 0.73 |
When it happened
Leicester’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9' | Shinji Okazaki didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% STK |
| 2 | 17' | Jamie Vardy didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +1% STK |
| 3 | 18' | Riyad Mahrez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +4% STK |
| 4 | 35' | Shinji Okazaki didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% STK |
| 5 | 41' | Danny Drinkwater scored from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +27% LEI |
| 6 | 56' | Shinji Okazaki didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +1% STK |
| 7 | 60' | José Luis Sanmartín Mato didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +4% LEI |
| 8 | 65' | Jamie Vardy scored from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +7% LEI |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Leicester 98% · draw 2% · Stoke 0%
- Final margin
- Leicester by 3
- Luck in goals
- 1.0 for Leicester
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Leicester by 2.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Leicester 89% · draw 10% · Stoke 1% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Leicester win 94% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 23 matches, 2015-16 · Leicester · Stoke
More from matchday 23, 2015-16
- Sunderland 1–1 Bournemouth Jan 23, 2016 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- West Brom 0–0 Aston Villa Jan 23, 2016 · drawn; replay 42% draws
- West Ham 2–2 Man City Jan 23, 2016 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Crystal Palace 1–3 Tottenham Jan 23, 2016 · replay 62% for Tottenham
- Man United 0–1 Southampton Jan 23, 2016 · replay 65% for Southampton
- Watford 2–1 Newcastle Jan 23, 2016 · replay 82% for Watford
- Norwich 4–5 Liverpool Jan 23, 2016 · replay 53% for Liverpool
- Arsenal 0–1 Chelsea Jan 24, 2016 · replay 56% for Chelsea
- Everton 1–2 Swansea Jan 24, 2016 · replay 51% for Swansea