Matchday 23 · Premier League 2015-16 · January 24, 2016
Everton 1–2 Swansea: who deserved to win?
Swansea beat Everton 2–1, but the replays call it even: Swansea win 3 of 10, Everton 4, 3 end level. Everton made the better chances: 1.6 expected goals to 1.3. An own goal helped Everton.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Everton | 1 | 1.55 |
 Swansea City | 2 | 1.26 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +49 Swansea lucky · −49 Everton
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Everton win 4, 3 end level, Swansea win 3.
- 1 EVE 1 SWA 0
- 2 EVE 1 SWA 0
- 3 EVE 3 SWA 1
- 4 EVE 3 SWA 0
- 5 EVE 2 SWA 2
- 6 EVE 1 SWA 1
- 7 EVE 0 SWA 0
- 8 EVE 0 SWA 2
- 9 EVE 1 SWA 2
- 10 EVE 0 SWA 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Everton win 36%, 26% end level, Swansea win 38%. The line is what actually happened: Swansea by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Everton by 3+ | 6.2% |
| Everton by 2 | 9.9% |
| Everton by 1 | 20.0% |
| Draw | 26.2% |
| Swansea by 1 | 21.0% |
| Swansea by 2 | 10.8% |
| Swansea by 3+ | 6.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Everton | 19 | 0 | 1.55 | −1.55 |
 Swansea | 7 (1 pen) | 2 | 1.26 | +0.74 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 16' | Gylfi Þór Sigurðsson scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 33' | André Ayew Pelé scored from a shot | 0.04 |
| 94' | Séamus Coleman didn’t score from a shot | 0.58 |
When it happened
Everton’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16' | Gylfi Þór Sigurðsson scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +6% SWA |
| 2 | 25' | Own goal by nan, for EvertonOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +27% EVE |
| 3 | 33' | The game turned hereAndré Ayew Pelé scored from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +28% SWA |
| 4 | 48' | Wayne Routledge didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +3% EVE |
| 5 | 72' | John Stones didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +5% SWA |
| 6 | 85' | Romelu Lukaku Menama didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% SWA |
| 7 | 87' | Séamus Coleman didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% SWA |
| 8 | 94' | Séamus Coleman didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 58% chance | +29% SWA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Everton 19% · draw 24% · Swansea 57%
- Final margin
- Swansea by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.8 for Swansea
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Swansea by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Everton 36% · draw 26% · Swansea 38% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Swansea win 51% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 23 matches, 2015-16 · Everton · Swansea
More from matchday 23, 2015-16
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- Leicester 3–0 Stoke Jan 23, 2016 · replay 94% for Leicester
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