Matchday 23 · Premier League 2015-16 · January 23, 2016
Man United 0–1 Southampton: who deserved to win?
Southampton beat Man United 1–0, and the replays lean Southampton’s way: 4 wins in 10, 1 for Man United, 5 end level. Southampton made the better chances: 0.6 expected goals to 0.2.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Manchester United | 0 | 0.18 |
 Southampton | 1 | 0.57 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +35 Southampton lucky · −35 Man United
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Man United win 1, 5 end level, Southampton win 4.
- 1 MUN 2 SOU 1
- 2 MUN 1 SOU 1
- 3 MUN 0 SOU 0
- 4 MUN 0 SOU 0
- 5 MUN 0 SOU 0
- 6 MUN 0 SOU 0
- 7 MUN 0 SOU 2
- 8 MUN 0 SOU 1
- 9 MUN 0 SOU 1
- 10 MUN 0 SOU 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Man United win 11%, 48% end level, Southampton win 41%. The line is what actually happened: Southampton by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Man United by 3+ | 0.0% |
| Man United by 2 | 1.1% |
| Man United by 1 | 10.1% |
| Draw | 48.1% |
| Southampton by 1 | 29.0% |
| Southampton by 2 | 9.2% |
| Southampton by 3+ | 2.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Man United | 8 | 0 | 0.18 | −0.18 |
 Southampton | 7 | 1 | 0.57 | +0.43 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 86' | Charlie Austin scored from a shot | 0.11 |
When it happened
Man United’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7' | Anthony Martial didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% SOU |
| 2 | 31' | Victor Wanyama didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +4% MUN |
| 3 | 45' | Jesse Lingard didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% SOU |
| 4 | 55' | Wayne Mark Rooney didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 2% chance | +1% SOU |
| 5 | 61' | Victor Wanyama didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% MUN |
| 6 | 79' | Shane Long didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +6% MUN |
| 7 | 86' | The game turned hereCharlie Austin scored from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +43% SOU |
| 8 | 94' | Adnan Januzaj didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% SOU |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Man United 11% · draw 48% · Southampton 41%
- Final margin
- Southampton by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for Southampton
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Southampton by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Man United 11% · draw 48% · Southampton 41% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Southampton win 65% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 23 matches, 2015-16 · Man United · Southampton
More from matchday 23, 2015-16
- Sunderland 1–1 Bournemouth Jan 23, 2016 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- West Brom 0–0 Aston Villa Jan 23, 2016 · drawn; replay 42% draws
- West Ham 2–2 Man City Jan 23, 2016 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Crystal Palace 1–3 Tottenham Jan 23, 2016 · replay 62% for Tottenham
- Watford 2–1 Newcastle Jan 23, 2016 · replay 82% for Watford
- Leicester 3–0 Stoke Jan 23, 2016 · replay 94% for Leicester
- Norwich 4–5 Liverpool Jan 23, 2016 · replay 53% for Liverpool
- Arsenal 0–1 Chelsea Jan 24, 2016 · replay 56% for Chelsea
- Everton 1–2 Swansea Jan 24, 2016 · replay 51% for Swansea