Matchday 23 · Premier League 2015-16 · January 23, 2016
Sunderland 1–1 Bournemouth: who deserved to win?
Sunderland and Bournemouth drew 1–1. Replayed with the way both teams played, Sunderland win 1 of 10, Bournemouth 6, and 3 end level. Bournemouth made the better chances: 1.2 expected goals to 0.5.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Sunderland | 1 | 0.49 |
 AFC Bournemouth | 1 | 1.18 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +22 Sunderland about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sunderland win 1, 3 end level, Bournemouth win 6.
- 1 SUN 1 BOU 0
- 2 SUN 1 BOU 1
- 3 SUN 1 BOU 1
- 4 SUN 1 BOU 1
- 5 SUN 0 BOU 3
- 6 SUN 0 BOU 2
- 7 SUN 0 BOU 2
- 8 SUN 0 BOU 1
- 9 SUN 0 BOU 1
- 10 SUN 0 BOU 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Sunderland win 13%, 29% end level, Bournemouth win 58%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sunderland by 3+ | 0.6% |
| Sunderland by 2 | 2.6% |
| Sunderland by 1 | 10.1% |
| Draw | 29.0% |
| Bournemouth by 1 | 29.1% |
| Bournemouth by 2 | 17.7% |
| Bournemouth by 3+ | 10.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sunderland | 10 | 1 | 0.49 | +0.51 |
 Bournemouth | 15 | 1 | 1.18 | −0.18 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 12' | Benik Afobe scored from a shot | 0.09 |
| 45' | Patrick van Aanholt scored from a shot | 0.10 |
| 82' | Lewis Grabban didn’t score from a shot | 0.45 |
When it happened
Sunderland’s chance of winning
As low as 24% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12' | Benik Afobe scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +24% BOU |
| 2 | 45' | Patrick van Aanholt scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +29% SUN |
| 3 | 48' | Junior Stanislas didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% SUN |
| 4 | 57' | Billy Jones didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% BOU |
| 5 | 72' | Duncan Watmore didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% BOU |
| 6 | 72' | Yann Gérard M''Vila didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% BOU |
| 7 | 79' | Matt Ritchie didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +2% SUN |
| 8 | 82' | Lewis Grabban didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 45% chance | +20% SUN |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sunderland 15% · draw 31% · Bournemouth 54%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for Sunderland
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Bournemouth by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Sunderland 13% · draw 29% · Bournemouth 58% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 23, 2015-16
- West Brom 0–0 Aston Villa Jan 23, 2016 · drawn; replay 42% draws
- West Ham 2–2 Man City Jan 23, 2016 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Crystal Palace 1–3 Tottenham Jan 23, 2016 · replay 62% for Tottenham
- Man United 0–1 Southampton Jan 23, 2016 · replay 65% for Southampton
- Watford 2–1 Newcastle Jan 23, 2016 · replay 82% for Watford
- Leicester 3–0 Stoke Jan 23, 2016 · replay 94% for Leicester
- Norwich 4–5 Liverpool Jan 23, 2016 · replay 53% for Liverpool
- Arsenal 0–1 Chelsea Jan 24, 2016 · replay 56% for Chelsea
- Everton 1–2 Swansea Jan 24, 2016 · replay 51% for Swansea