Matchday 23 · Premier League 2015-16 · January 23, 2016
Norwich 4–5 Liverpool: who deserved to win?
Liverpool beat Norwich 5–4, but the replays call it even: Liverpool win 4 of 10, Norwich 4, 2 end level. Liverpool made the better chances: 1.6 expected goals to 1.2.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Norwich City | 4 | 1.23 |
 Liverpool | 5 | 1.62 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +47 Liverpool lucky · −47 Norwich
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Norwich win 4, 2 end level, Liverpool win 4.
- 1 NOR 1 LIV 0
- 2 NOR 2 LIV 1
- 3 NOR 3 LIV 1
- 4 NOR 3 LIV 0
- 5 NOR 0 LIV 0
- 6 NOR 1 LIV 1
- 7 NOR 0 LIV 3
- 8 NOR 0 LIV 2
- 9 NOR 0 LIV 1
- 10 NOR 1 LIV 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Norwich win 35%, 25% end level, Liverpool win 40%. The line is what actually happened: Liverpool by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Norwich by 3+ | 6.4% |
| Norwich by 2 | 10.4% |
| Norwich by 1 | 18.3% |
| Draw | 24.6% |
| Liverpool by 1 | 20.1% |
| Liverpool by 2 | 12.0% |
| Liverpool by 3+ | 8.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Norwich | 7 (1 pen) | 4 | 1.23 | +2.77 |
 Liverpool | 14 | 5 | 1.62 | +3.38 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 17' | Roberto Firmino Barbosa de Oliveira scored from a shot | 0.14 |
| 28' | Dieumerci Mbokani Bezua scored from a shot | 0.27 |
| 40' | Steven Naismith scored from a shot | 0.05 |
| 53' | Wes Hoolahan scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 54' | Jordan Brian Henderson scored from a shot | 0.24 |
| 62' | Roberto Firmino Barbosa de Oliveira scored from a shot | 0.31 |
| 74' | James Philip Milner scored from a shot | 0.47 |
| 91' | Sébastien Aymar Bassong Nguena scored from a shot | 0.03 |
| 94' | Adam David Lallana scored from a shot | 0.08 |
When it happened
Norwich’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 98%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17' | Roberto Firmino Barbosa de Oliveira scored from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +23% LIV |
| 2 | 28' | Dieumerci Mbokani Bezua scored from a shotFinishing · 27% chance | +21% NOR |
| 3 | 40' | Steven Naismith scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +26% NOR |
| 4 | 54' | Jordan Brian Henderson scored from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +8% LIV |
| 5 | 62' | The game turned hereRoberto Firmino Barbosa de Oliveira scored from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +24% LIV |
| 6 | 74' | James Philip Milner scored from a shotFinishing · 47% chance | +22% LIV |
| 7 | 91' | Sébastien Aymar Bassong Nguena scored from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +48% NOR |
| 8 | 94' | Adam David Lallana scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +46% LIV |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Norwich 26% · draw 28% · Liverpool 46%
- Final margin
- Liverpool by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for Liverpool
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Liverpool by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Norwich 35% · draw 25% · Liverpool 40% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Liverpool win 53% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 23 matches, 2015-16 · Norwich · Liverpool
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