Matchday 23 · Premier League 2015-16 · January 23, 2016
West Ham 2–2 Man City: who deserved to win?
West Ham and Man City drew 2–2. Replayed with the way both teams played, West Ham win 2 of 10, Man City 6, and 2 end level. Man City made the better chances: 1.8 expected goals to 0.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 West Ham United | 2 | 0.91 |
 Manchester City | 2 | 1.82 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +15 West Ham about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. West Ham win 2, 2 end level, Man City win 6.
- 1 WHU 1 MCI 0
- 2 WHU 2 MCI 0
- 3 WHU 1 MCI 1
- 4 WHU 2 MCI 2
- 5 WHU 0 MCI 3
- 6 WHU 2 MCI 4
- 7 WHU 0 MCI 2
- 8 WHU 0 MCI 2
- 9 WHU 1 MCI 2
- 10 WHU 0 MCI 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
West Ham win 23%, 24% end level, Man City win 52%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| West Ham by 3+ | 1.7% |
| West Ham by 2 | 6.2% |
| West Ham by 1 | 15.3% |
| Draw | 24.3% |
| Man City by 1 | 23.6% |
| Man City by 2 | 17.5% |
| Man City by 3+ | 11.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 West Ham | 10 | 2 | 0.91 | +1.09 |
 Man City | 16 (1 pen) | 2 | 1.82 | +0.18 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 0' | Enner Remberto Valencia Lastra scored from a shot | 0.09 |
| 8' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 55' | Enner Remberto Valencia Lastra scored from a shot | 0.36 |
| 80' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo scored from a shot | 0.33 |
When it happened
West Ham’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0' | Enner Remberto Valencia Lastra scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +20% WHU |
| 2 | 5' | Jesús Navas González didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +3% WHU |
| 3 | 8' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +5% MCI |
| 4 | 55' | Enner Remberto Valencia Lastra scored from a shotFinishing · 36% chance | +20% WHU |
| 5 | 80' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo scored from a shotFinishing · 33% chance | +29% MCI |
| 6 | 88' | Nikica Jelavić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +6% MCI |
| 7 | 92' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +7% WHU |
| 8 | 93' | Cheikhou Kouyaté didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +4% MCI |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
West Ham 14% · draw 23% · Man City 63%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.7 for West Ham
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Man City by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- West Ham 23% · draw 24% · Man City 52% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
More from matchday 23, 2015-16
- Sunderland 1–1 Bournemouth Jan 23, 2016 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- West Brom 0–0 Aston Villa Jan 23, 2016 · drawn; replay 42% draws
- Crystal Palace 1–3 Tottenham Jan 23, 2016 · replay 62% for Tottenham
- Man United 0–1 Southampton Jan 23, 2016 · replay 65% for Southampton
- Watford 2–1 Newcastle Jan 23, 2016 · replay 82% for Watford
- Leicester 3–0 Stoke Jan 23, 2016 · replay 94% for Leicester
- Norwich 4–5 Liverpool Jan 23, 2016 · replay 53% for Liverpool
- Arsenal 0–1 Chelsea Jan 24, 2016 · replay 56% for Chelsea
- Everton 1–2 Swansea Jan 24, 2016 · replay 51% for Swansea