Matchday 23 · Premier League 2015-16 · January 23, 2016
Watford 2–1 Newcastle: who deserved to win?
Watford beat Newcastle 2–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Watford win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Watford made the better chances: 2.1 expected goals to 0.9.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Watford | 2 | 2.12 |
 Newcastle United | 1 | 0.88 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +18 Watford about even · −18 Newcastle
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Watford win 7, 2 end level, Newcastle win 1.
- 1 WAT 1 NEW 0
- 2 WAT 1 NEW 0
- 3 WAT 4 NEW 2
- 4 WAT 2 NEW 0
- 5 WAT 6 NEW 3
- 6 WAT 3 NEW 0
- 7 WAT 5 NEW 0
- 8 WAT 1 NEW 1
- 9 WAT 0 NEW 0
- 10 WAT 2 NEW 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Watford win 74%, 16% end level, Newcastle win 10%. The line is what actually happened: Watford by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Watford by 3+ | 29.9% |
| Watford by 2 | 21.7% |
| Watford by 1 | 22.4% |
| Draw | 15.9% |
| Newcastle by 1 | 7.2% |
| Newcastle by 2 | 2.4% |
| Newcastle by 3+ | 0.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Watford | 13 | 2 | 2.12 | −0.12 |
 Newcastle | 12 | 1 | 0.88 | +0.12 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 45' | Odion Jude Ighalo scored from a shot | 0.75 |
| 57' | Craig Cathcart scored from a shot | 0.31 |
| 70' | Jamaal Lascelles scored from a shot | 0.06 |
When it happened
Watford’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | Georginio Wijnaldum didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% WAT |
| 2 | 2' | Rolando Aarons didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% WAT |
| 3 | 16' | Etienne Capoue didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +6% NEW |
| 4 | 22' | Aleksandar Mitrović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +5% WAT |
| 5 | 45' | Odion Jude Ighalo scored from a shotFinishing · 75% chance | +7% WAT |
| 6 | 57' | Craig Cathcart scored from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +7% WAT |
| 7 | 70' | Jamaal Lascelles scored from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +8% NEW |
| 8 | 92' | Emmanuel Rivière didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +3% WAT |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Watford 71% · draw 18% · Newcastle 12%
- Final margin
- Watford by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for Newcastle
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Watford by 1.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Watford 74% · draw 16% · Newcastle 10% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Watford win 82% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 23 matches, 2015-16 · Watford · Newcastle
More from matchday 23, 2015-16
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- Man United 0–1 Southampton Jan 23, 2016 · replay 65% for Southampton
- Leicester 3–0 Stoke Jan 23, 2016 · replay 94% for Leicester
- Norwich 4–5 Liverpool Jan 23, 2016 · replay 53% for Liverpool
- Arsenal 0–1 Chelsea Jan 24, 2016 · replay 56% for Chelsea
- Everton 1–2 Swansea Jan 24, 2016 · replay 51% for Swansea