Matchday 23 · Premier League 2015-16 · January 23, 2016
Crystal Palace 1–3 Tottenham: who deserved to win?
Tottenham beat Crystal Palace 3–1, and the replays lean Tottenham’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Crystal Palace, 3 end level. Tottenham made the better chances: 1.5 expected goals to 0.9. An own goal helped Crystal Palace.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Crystal Palace | 1 | 0.92 |
 Tottenham Hotspur | 3 | 1.46 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +38 Tottenham lucky · −38 Crystal Palace
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Crystal Palace win 2, 3 end level, Tottenham win 5.
- 1 CRY 2 TOT 1
- 2 CRY 2 TOT 0
- 3 CRY 1 TOT 1
- 4 CRY 0 TOT 0
- 5 CRY 1 TOT 1
- 6 CRY 0 TOT 3
- 7 CRY 1 TOT 3
- 8 CRY 0 TOT 2
- 9 CRY 0 TOT 1
- 10 CRY 0 TOT 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Crystal Palace win 24%, 28% end level, Tottenham win 48%. The line is what actually happened: Tottenham by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Crystal Palace by 3+ | 2.2% |
| Crystal Palace by 2 | 6.2% |
| Crystal Palace by 1 | 15.8% |
| Draw | 27.8% |
| Tottenham by 1 | 23.3% |
| Tottenham by 2 | 14.4% |
| Tottenham by 3+ | 10.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Crystal Palace | 11 | 0 | 0.92 | −0.92 |
 Tottenham | 24 | 3 | 1.46 | +1.54 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 62' | Harry Kane scored from a shot | 0.23 |
| 83' | Bamidele Alli scored from a shot | 0.04 |
| 91' | Bamidele Alli didn’t score from a shot | 0.38 |
| 94' | Nacer Chadli scored from a shot | 0.03 |
When it happened
Crystal Palace’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 89%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 29' | Own goal by nan, for Crystal PalaceOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +24% CRY |
| 2 | 54' | Harry Kane didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +6% CRY |
| 3 | 62' | Harry Kane scored from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +27% TOT |
| 4 | 69' | Wilfried Zaha didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% TOT |
| 5 | 69' | Damien Delaney didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +7% TOT |
| 6 | 79' | Mile Jedinak didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +7% TOT |
| 7 | 83' | The game turned hereBamidele Alli scored from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +44% TOT |
| 8 | 88' | Fraizer Campbell didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +7% TOT |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Crystal Palace 7% · draw 16% · Tottenham 77%
- Final margin
- Tottenham by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.9 for Tottenham
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Tottenham by 1.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Crystal Palace 24% · draw 28% · Tottenham 48% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Tottenham win 62% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 23 matches, 2015-16 · Crystal Palace · Tottenham
More from matchday 23, 2015-16
- Sunderland 1–1 Bournemouth Jan 23, 2016 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- West Brom 0–0 Aston Villa Jan 23, 2016 · drawn; replay 42% draws
- West Ham 2–2 Man City Jan 23, 2016 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Man United 0–1 Southampton Jan 23, 2016 · replay 65% for Southampton
- Watford 2–1 Newcastle Jan 23, 2016 · replay 82% for Watford
- Leicester 3–0 Stoke Jan 23, 2016 · replay 94% for Leicester
- Norwich 4–5 Liverpool Jan 23, 2016 · replay 53% for Liverpool
- Arsenal 0–1 Chelsea Jan 24, 2016 · replay 56% for Chelsea
- Everton 1–2 Swansea Jan 24, 2016 · replay 51% for Swansea