luckadjusted
Premier League Matchday 5 · 2026-27

Matchday 23 · Premier League 2015-16 · January 23, 2016

West Brom 0–0 Aston Villa: who deserved to win?

West Brom and Aston Villa drew 0–0. Replayed with the way both teams played, West Brom win 2 of 10, Aston Villa 4, and 4 end level. The chances were close to even (0.5 expected goals to 0.6).

Full time

GoalsxG
West Bromwich Albion 0 0.47
Aston Villa 0 0.63

January 23, 2016 · The Hawthorns · Referee: Robert Madley

Luck index +5 West Brom about even for the draw

Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. West Brom win 2, 4 end level, Aston Villa win 4.

  1. 1 WBA 1 AVL 0
  2. 2 WBA 2 AVL 1
  3. 3 WBA 0 AVL 0
  4. 4 WBA 0 AVL 0
  5. 5 WBA 0 AVL 0
  6. 6 WBA 0 AVL 0
  7. 7 WBA 0 AVL 2
  8. 8 WBA 0 AVL 1
  9. 9 WBA 0 AVL 1
  10. 10 WBA 0 AVL 1

The narrowest view of luck

The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.

There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.

How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended

West Brom win 24%, 42% end level, Aston Villa win 34%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.

Show as a table
After 90 minutes in the replaysShare of replays
West Brom by 3+0.7%
West Brom by 24.7%
West Brom by 119.1%
Draw41.5%
Aston Villa by 123.2%
Aston Villa by 28.6%
Aston Villa by 3+2.3%

Where the luck was

FinishingShotsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
West Brom500.47−0.47
Aston Villa1600.63−0.63

Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

When it happened

West Brom’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the minutes left, with goals for the rest of the match at the league’s rates. A draw counts half, as in the replays. Shaded above the middle while West Brom was ahead in it, below while Aston Villa was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability for
1 20' Jordan Ayew didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance +2% WBA
2 47' Craig Dawson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance +6% AVL
3 56' José Salomón Rondón Giménez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance +5% AVL
4 66' Rudy Gestede didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance +3% WBA
5 68' Jordan Ayew didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance +2% WBA
6 72' Rudy Gestede didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance +2% WBA
7 78' Jordan Ayew didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance +3% WBA
8 81' Micah Richards didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance +2% WBA

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

West Brom 24% · draw 41% · Aston Villa 34%

Final margin
even
Luck in goals
0.1 for West Brom
Luck-adjusted margin
Aston Villa by 0.1
Replay with same day's form
West Brom 24% · draw 42% · Aston Villa 34% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

About these numbers

Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).

All matchday 23 matches, 2015-16 · West Brom · Aston Villa

More from matchday 23, 2015-16

Every match of matchday 23, 2015-16