Matchday 23 · Premier League 2015-16 · January 24, 2016
Arsenal 0–1 Chelsea: who deserved to win?
Chelsea beat Arsenal 1–0, and the replays lean Chelsea’s way: 4 wins in 10, 3 for Arsenal, 3 end level. The chances were close to even (1.1 expected goals to 1.2).
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +44 Chelsea lucky · −44 Arsenal
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Arsenal win 3, 3 end level, Chelsea win 4.
- 1 ARS 1 CHE 0
- 2 ARS 1 CHE 0
- 3 ARS 3 CHE 1
- 4 ARS 3 CHE 3
- 5 ARS 2 CHE 2
- 6 ARS 1 CHE 1
- 7 ARS 0 CHE 3
- 8 ARS 1 CHE 3
- 9 ARS 1 CHE 2
- 10 ARS 0 CHE 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Arsenal win 30%, 27% end level, Chelsea win 43%. The line is what actually happened: Chelsea by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Arsenal by 3+ | 3.2% |
| Arsenal by 2 | 8.3% |
| Arsenal by 1 | 18.8% |
| Draw | 27.1% |
| Chelsea by 1 | 22.5% |
| Chelsea by 2 | 12.8% |
| Chelsea by 3+ | 7.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Arsenal | 10 | 0 | 1.15 | −1.15 |
 Chelsea | 12 | 1 | 1.18 | −0.18 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 14' | Willian Borges da Silva didn’t score from a shot | 0.37 |
| 22' | Diego da Silva Costa scored from a shot | 0.32 |
| 45' | Mathieu Flamini didn’t score from a shot | 0.32 |
When it happened
Arsenal’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9' | Mathieu Flamini didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +5% CHE |
| 2 | 14' | Willian Borges da Silva didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 37% chance | +10% ARS |
| 3 | 22' | Diego da Silva Costa scored from a shotFinishing · 32% chance | +19% CHE |
| 4 | 45' | Mathieu Flamini didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 32% chance | +10% CHE |
| 5 | 62' | Aaron Ramsey didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% CHE |
| 6 | 62' | Gabriel Armando de Abreu didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% CHE |
| 7 | 86' | Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +5% CHE |
| 8 | 86' | Mathieu Flamini didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +4% CHE |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Arsenal 34% · draw 29% · Chelsea 36%
- Final margin
- Chelsea by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.7 for Chelsea
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Chelsea by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Arsenal 30% · draw 27% · Chelsea 43% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Chelsea win 56% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 23, 2015-16
- Sunderland 1–1 Bournemouth Jan 23, 2016 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- West Brom 0–0 Aston Villa Jan 23, 2016 · drawn; replay 42% draws
- West Ham 2–2 Man City Jan 23, 2016 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Crystal Palace 1–3 Tottenham Jan 23, 2016 · replay 62% for Tottenham
- Man United 0–1 Southampton Jan 23, 2016 · replay 65% for Southampton
- Watford 2–1 Newcastle Jan 23, 2016 · replay 82% for Watford
- Leicester 3–0 Stoke Jan 23, 2016 · replay 94% for Leicester
- Norwich 4–5 Liverpool Jan 23, 2016 · replay 53% for Liverpool
- Everton 1–2 Swansea Jan 24, 2016 · replay 51% for Swansea