Matchday 26 · Premier League 2015-16 · February 13, 2016
Swansea 0–1 Southampton: who deserved to win?
Southampton beat Swansea 1–0, and the replays lean Southampton’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Swansea, 3 end level. Southampton made the better chances: 1.2 expected goals to 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Swansea City | 0 | 0.59 |
 Southampton | 1 | 1.16 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +33 Southampton lucky · −33 Swansea
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Swansea win 2, 3 end level, Southampton win 5.
- 1 SWA 1 SOU 0
- 2 SWA 1 SOU 0
- 3 SWA 1 SOU 1
- 4 SWA 1 SOU 1
- 5 SWA 1 SOU 1
- 6 SWA 0 SOU 3
- 7 SWA 0 SOU 2
- 8 SWA 0 SOU 2
- 9 SWA 2 SOU 3
- 10 SWA 1 SOU 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Swansea win 18%, 31% end level, Southampton win 52%. The line is what actually happened: Southampton by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Swansea by 3+ | 0.9% |
| Swansea by 2 | 3.7% |
| Swansea by 1 | 13.1% |
| Draw | 30.9% |
| Southampton by 1 | 27.7% |
| Southampton by 2 | 14.8% |
| Southampton by 3+ | 9.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Swansea | 13 | 0 | 0.59 | −0.59 |
 Southampton | 15 | 1 | 1.16 | −0.16 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 68' | Shane Long scored from a shot | 0.18 |
When it happened
Swansea’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14' | Oriol Romeu Vidal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +3% SWA |
| 2 | 43' | Gylfi Þór Sigurðsson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% SOU |
| 3 | 44' | Shane Long didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +3% SWA |
| 4 | 50' | Oriol Romeu Vidal didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +9% SWA |
| 5 | 68' | The game turned hereShane Long scored from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +32% SOU |
| 6 | 77' | Modou Barrow didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% SOU |
| 7 | 83' | Bafétimbi Gomis didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% SOU |
| 8 | 88' | André Ayew Pelé didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +5% SOU |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Swansea 18% · draw 29% · Southampton 53%
- Final margin
- Southampton by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.3 for Southampton
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Southampton by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Swansea 18% · draw 31% · Southampton 52% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Southampton win 67% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 26 matches, 2015-16 · Swansea · Southampton
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