Matchday 26 · Premier League 2015-16 · February 14, 2016
Man City 1–2 Tottenham: who deserved to win?
Tottenham beat Man City 2–1, but the replays lean toward Man City: 5 wins in 10 to Tottenham’s 3, 2 end level. Man City made the better chances: 2.0 expected goals to 1.3.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Manchester City | 1 | 1.99 |
 Tottenham Hotspur | 2 | 1.26 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +61 Tottenham very lucky · −61 Man City
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Man City win 5, 2 end level, Tottenham win 3.
- 1 MCI 2 TOT 1
- 2 MCI 1 TOT 0
- 3 MCI 2 TOT 0
- 4 MCI 3 TOT 1
- 5 MCI 3 TOT 0
- 6 MCI 1 TOT 1
- 7 MCI 2 TOT 2
- 8 MCI 0 TOT 2
- 9 MCI 1 TOT 2
- 10 MCI 0 TOT 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Man City win 50%, 23% end level, Tottenham win 28%. The line is what actually happened: Tottenham by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Man City by 3+ | 11.9% |
| Man City by 2 | 15.4% |
| Man City by 1 | 22.4% |
| Draw | 22.5% |
| Tottenham by 1 | 16.6% |
| Tottenham by 2 | 7.2% |
| Tottenham by 3+ | 3.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Man City | 18 | 1 | 1.99 | −0.99 |
 Tottenham | 6 (1 pen) | 2 | 1.26 | +0.74 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 52' | Harry Kane scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 73' | Kelechi Promise Iheanacho scored from a shot | 0.24 |
| 82' | Christian Dannemann Eriksen scored from a shot | 0.42 |
| 94' | David Josué Jiménez Silva didn’t score from a shot | 0.55 |
When it happened
Man City’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +4% TOT |
| 2 | 23' | Raheem Sterling didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% TOT |
| 3 | 48' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +8% TOT |
| 4 | 52' | Harry Kane scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +7% TOT |
| 5 | 73' | Kelechi Promise Iheanacho scored from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +31% MCI |
| 6 | 82' | The game turned hereChristian Dannemann Eriksen scored from a shotFinishing · 42% chance | +27% TOT |
| 7 | 91' | Vincent Kompany didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +3% TOT |
| 8 | 94' | David Josué Jiménez Silva didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 55% chance | +28% TOT |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Man City 53% · draw 25% · Tottenham 21%
- Final margin
- Tottenham by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.3 for Tottenham
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Man City by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Man City 50% · draw 23% · Tottenham 28% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Tottenham win 39% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 26, 2015-16
- Crystal Palace 1–2 Watford Feb 13, 2016 · replay 66% for Watford
- Sunderland 2–1 Man United Feb 13, 2016 · replay 74% for Sunderland
- Swansea 0–1 Southampton Feb 13, 2016 · replay 67% for Southampton
- Norwich 2–2 West Ham Feb 13, 2016 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Chelsea 5–1 Newcastle Feb 13, 2016 · replay 94% for Chelsea
- Bournemouth 1–3 Stoke Feb 13, 2016 · replay 50% for Stoke
- Everton 0–1 West Brom Feb 13, 2016 · replay 40% for West Brom
- Aston Villa 0–6 Liverpool Feb 14, 2016 · replay 98% for Liverpool
- Arsenal 2–1 Leicester Feb 14, 2016 · replay 78% for Arsenal