Matchday 26 · Premier League 2015-16 · February 14, 2016
Arsenal 2–1 Leicester: who deserved to win?
Arsenal beat Leicester 2–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Arsenal win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Arsenal made the better chances: 2.8 expected goals to 1.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Arsenal | 2 | 2.75 |
 Leicester City | 1 | 1.10 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +22 Arsenal about even · −22 Leicester
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Arsenal win 7, 2 end level, Leicester win 1.
- 1 ARS 1 LEI 0
- 2 ARS 2 LEI 1
- 3 ARS 3 LEI 1
- 4 ARS 3 LEI 1
- 5 ARS 4 LEI 1
- 6 ARS 4 LEI 0
- 7 ARS 5 LEI 0
- 8 ARS 1 LEI 1
- 9 ARS 1 LEI 1
- 10 ARS 0 LEI 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Arsenal win 70%, 17% end level, Leicester win 14%. The line is what actually happened: Arsenal by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Arsenal by 3+ | 29.5% |
| Arsenal by 2 | 19.0% |
| Arsenal by 1 | 21.3% |
| Draw | 16.6% |
| Leicester by 1 | 8.8% |
| Leicester by 2 | 3.4% |
| Leicester by 3+ | 1.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Arsenal | 25 | 2 | 2.75 | −0.75 |
 Leicester | 7 (1 pen) | 1 | 1.10 | −0.10 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 44' | Jamie Vardy scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 69' | Theo Walcott scored from a shot | 0.13 |
| 86' | Daniel Nii Tackie Mensah Welbeck didn’t score from a shot | 0.37 |
| 94' | Daniel Nii Tackie Mensah Welbeck scored from a shot | 0.20 |
When it happened
Arsenal’s chance of winning
As low as 13% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44' | Jamie Vardy scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +7% LEI |
| 2 | 69' | The game turned hereTheo Walcott scored from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +35% ARS |
| 3 | 84' | Per Mertesacker didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +6% LEI |
| 4 | 84' | Per Mertesacker didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +7% LEI |
| 5 | 86' | Daniel Nii Tackie Mensah Welbeck didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 37% chance | +18% LEI |
| 6 | 87' | Olivier Giroud didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +6% LEI |
| 7 | 88' | Theo Walcott didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +7% LEI |
| 8 | 94' | Daniel Nii Tackie Mensah Welbeck scored from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +40% ARS |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Arsenal 74% · draw 18% · Leicester 8%
- Final margin
- Arsenal by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for Leicester
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Arsenal by 1.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Arsenal 70% · draw 17% · Leicester 14% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Arsenal win 78% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 26 matches, 2015-16 · Arsenal · Leicester
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