Matchday 26 · Premier League 2015-16 · February 14, 2016
Aston Villa 0–6 Liverpool: who deserved to win?
Liverpool beat Aston Villa 6–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Liverpool win 10 of 10. Liverpool made the better chances: 2.6 expected goals to 0.2.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Aston Villa | 0 | 0.23 |
 Liverpool | 6 | 2.65 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +2 Liverpool about even · −2 Aston Villa
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Aston Villa win 0, 0 end level, Liverpool win 10.
- 1 AVL 0 LIV 7
- 2 AVL 0 LIV 6
- 3 AVL 0 LIV 5
- 4 AVL 0 LIV 4
- 5 AVL 0 LIV 4
- 6 AVL 0 LIV 3
- 7 AVL 1 LIV 4
- 8 AVL 0 LIV 2
- 9 AVL 1 LIV 3
- 10 AVL 0 LIV 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Aston Villa win 1%, 3% end level, Liverpool win 96%. The line is what actually happened: Liverpool by 6.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Aston Villa by 3+ | 0.0% |
| Aston Villa by 2 | 0.0% |
| Aston Villa by 1 | 0.5% |
| Draw | 3.1% |
| Liverpool by 1 | 9.7% |
| Liverpool by 2 | 16.9% |
| Liverpool by 3+ | 69.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Aston Villa | 6 | 0 | 0.23 | −0.23 |
 Liverpool | 12 | 6 | 2.65 | +3.35 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 15' | Daniel Andre Sturridge scored from a shot | 0.26 |
| 24' | James Philip Milner scored from a free kick | 0.01 |
| 29' | Jordan Brian Henderson didn’t score from a shot | 0.40 |
| 57' | Emre Can scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 62' | Divock Okoth Origi scored from a shot | 0.35 |
| 64' | Nathaniel Edwin Clyne didn’t score from a shot | 0.31 |
| 64' | Nathaniel Edwin Clyne scored from a shot | 0.90 |
| 70' | Kolo Habib Touré scored from a shot | 0.08 |
When it happened
Aston Villa’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15' | Daniel Andre Sturridge scored from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +19% LIV |
| 2 | 22' | Ashley Westwood didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 2% chance | +1% LIV |
| 3 | 24' | James Philip Milner scored from a free kickFinishing · 1% chance | +18% LIV |
| 4 | 29' | Jordan Brian Henderson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 40% chance | +3% AVL |
| 5 | 32' | Alberto Moreno Pérez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +1% AVL |
| 6 | 43' | Daniel Andre Sturridge didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +0% AVL |
| 7 | 57' | Emre Can scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% LIV |
| 8 | 62' | Divock Okoth Origi scored from a shotFinishing · 35% chance | +0% LIV |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Aston Villa 0% · draw 0% · Liverpool 100%
- Final margin
- Liverpool by 6
- Luck in goals
- 2.7 for Liverpool
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Liverpool by 3.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Aston Villa 1% · draw 3% · Liverpool 96% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Liverpool win 98% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 26, 2015-16
- Crystal Palace 1–2 Watford Feb 13, 2016 · replay 66% for Watford
- Sunderland 2–1 Man United Feb 13, 2016 · replay 74% for Sunderland
- Swansea 0–1 Southampton Feb 13, 2016 · replay 67% for Southampton
- Norwich 2–2 West Ham Feb 13, 2016 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Chelsea 5–1 Newcastle Feb 13, 2016 · replay 94% for Chelsea
- Bournemouth 1–3 Stoke Feb 13, 2016 · replay 50% for Stoke
- Everton 0–1 West Brom Feb 13, 2016 · replay 40% for West Brom
- Man City 1–2 Tottenham Feb 14, 2016 · replay 39% for Tottenham
- Arsenal 2–1 Leicester Feb 14, 2016 · replay 78% for Arsenal