Matchday 26 · Premier League 2015-16 · February 13, 2016
Everton 0–1 West Brom: who deserved to win?
West Brom beat Everton 1–0, but the replays lean toward Everton: 5 wins in 10 to West Brom’s 2, 3 end level. Everton made the better chances: 1.8 expected goals to 1.0.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Everton | 0 | 1.79 |
 West Bromwich Albion | 1 | 0.99 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +60 West Brom very lucky · −60 Everton
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Everton win 5, 3 end level, West Brom win 2.
- 1 EVE 1 WBA 0
- 2 EVE 2 WBA 1
- 3 EVE 2 WBA 1
- 4 EVE 4 WBA 2
- 5 EVE 3 WBA 0
- 6 EVE 0 WBA 0
- 7 EVE 1 WBA 1
- 8 EVE 1 WBA 1
- 9 EVE 1 WBA 3
- 10 EVE 0 WBA 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Everton win 48%, 25% end level, West Brom win 27%. The line is what actually happened: West Brom by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Everton by 3+ | 10.3% |
| Everton by 2 | 13.9% |
| Everton by 1 | 23.4% |
| Draw | 25.2% |
| West Brom by 1 | 16.9% |
| West Brom by 2 | 7.3% |
| West Brom by 3+ | 3.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Everton | 32 | 0 | 1.79 | −1.79 |
 West Brom | 6 | 1 | 0.99 | +0.01 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 13' | José Salomón Rondón Giménez scored from a shot | 0.79 |
When it happened
Everton’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1' | Séamus Coleman didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% WBA |
| 2 | 13' | José Salomón Rondón Giménez scored from a shotFinishing · 79% chance | +6% WBA |
| 3 | 32' | José Ramiro Funes Mori didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% WBA |
| 4 | 54' | Ross Barkley didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% WBA |
| 5 | 76' | Arouna Koné didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% WBA |
| 6 | 78' | Gareth Barry didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +5% WBA |
| 7 | 86' | Ross Barkley didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +6% WBA |
| 8 | 93' | Ross Barkley didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +9% WBA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Everton 55% · draw 26% · West Brom 19%
- Final margin
- West Brom by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.4 for West Brom
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Everton by 0.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Everton 48% · draw 25% · West Brom 27% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). West Brom win 40% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 26 matches, 2015-16 · Everton · West Brom
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