Matchday 26 · Premier League 2015-16 · February 13, 2016
Crystal Palace 1–2 Watford: who deserved to win?
Watford beat Crystal Palace 2–1, and the replays lean Watford’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Crystal Palace, 2 end level. Watford made the better chances: 1.7 expected goals to 1.1.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Crystal Palace | 1 | 1.14 |
 Watford | 2 | 1.70 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +34 Watford lucky · −34 Crystal Palace
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Crystal Palace win 2, 2 end level, Watford win 6.
- 1 CRY 2 WAT 1
- 2 CRY 3 WAT 1
- 3 CRY 0 WAT 0
- 4 CRY 2 WAT 2
- 5 CRY 1 WAT 5
- 6 CRY 0 WAT 3
- 7 CRY 0 WAT 2
- 8 CRY 0 WAT 1
- 9 CRY 0 WAT 1
- 10 CRY 0 WAT 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Crystal Palace win 23%, 23% end level, Watford win 54%. The line is what actually happened: Watford by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Crystal Palace by 3+ | 2.3% |
| Crystal Palace by 2 | 5.9% |
| Crystal Palace by 1 | 14.4% |
| Draw | 23.4% |
| Watford by 1 | 23.9% |
| Watford by 2 | 15.9% |
| Watford by 3+ | 14.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Crystal Palace | 15 | 1 | 1.14 | −0.14 |
 Watford | 11 (1 pen) | 2 | 1.70 | +0.30 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 15' | Troy Deeney scored from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 44' | Emmanuel Adebayor scored from a shot | 0.10 |
| 57' | Emmanuel Adebayor didn’t score from a shot | 0.66 |
| 81' | Troy Deeney scored from a shot | 0.24 |
When it happened
Crystal Palace’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15' | Troy Deeney scored from a penaltyFinishing · 78% chance | +6% WAT |
| 2 | 41' | Odion Jude Ighalo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +4% CRY |
| 3 | 44' | Emmanuel Adebayor scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +29% CRY |
| 4 | 57' | Emmanuel Adebayor didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 66% chance | +22% WAT |
| 5 | 74' | Nathan Aké didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +5% CRY |
| 6 | 81' | The game turned hereTroy Deeney scored from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +35% WAT |
| 7 | 92' | Damien Delaney didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% WAT |
| 8 | 96' | Joel Ward didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +5% WAT |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Crystal Palace 20% · draw 28% · Watford 52%
- Final margin
- Watford by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.3 for Watford
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Watford by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Crystal Palace 23% · draw 23% · Watford 54% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Watford win 66% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 26 matches, 2015-16 · Crystal Palace · Watford
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- Aston Villa 0–6 Liverpool Feb 14, 2016 · replay 98% for Liverpool
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