Matchday 26 · Premier League 2015-16 · February 13, 2016
Sunderland 2–1 Man United: who deserved to win?
Sunderland beat Man United 2–1, and the replays lean Sunderland’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Man United, 2 end level. Sunderland made the better chances: 1.8 expected goals to 0.9. An own goal helped Sunderland.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Sunderland | 2 | 1.81 |
 Manchester United | 1 | 0.95 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +26 Sunderland lucky · −26 Man United
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sunderland win 6, 2 end level, Man United win 2.
- 1 SUN 1 MUN 0
- 2 SUN 2 MUN 1
- 3 SUN 3 MUN 1
- 4 SUN 2 MUN 0
- 5 SUN 3 MUN 0
- 6 SUN 4 MUN 0
- 7 SUN 1 MUN 1
- 8 SUN 1 MUN 1
- 9 SUN 0 MUN 2
- 10 SUN 2 MUN 3
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Sunderland win 63%, 21% end level, Man United win 15%. The line is what actually happened: Sunderland by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sunderland by 3+ | 19.8% |
| Sunderland by 2 | 18.4% |
| Sunderland by 1 | 25.1% |
| Draw | 21.1% |
| Man United by 1 | 10.7% |
| Man United by 2 | 3.4% |
| Man United by 3+ | 1.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sunderland | 21 | 1 | 1.81 | −0.81 |
 Man United | 13 | 1 | 0.95 | +0.05 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 2' | Wahbi Khazri scored from a free kick | 0.01 |
| 10' | Jermain Defoe didn’t score from a shot | 0.40 |
| 38' | Anthony Martial scored from a shot | 0.10 |
When it happened
Sunderland’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | Wahbi Khazri scored from a free kickFinishing · 1% chance | +22% SUN |
| 2 | 10' | Jermain Defoe didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 40% chance | +5% MUN |
| 3 | 38' | Anthony Martial scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +25% MUN |
| 4 | 53' | Jermain Defoe didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 30% chance | +9% MUN |
| 5 | 60' | Dame N''Doye didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +7% MUN |
| 6 | 67' | Juan Manuel Mata García didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +7% SUN |
| 7 | 81' | Lamine Koné didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chanceOwn goal by nan, for SunderlandOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +38% SUN |
| 8 | 88' | Memphis Depay didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +5% SUN |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sunderland 60% · draw 22% · Man United 18%
- Final margin
- Sunderland by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.3 for Sunderland
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Sunderland by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Sunderland 63% · draw 21% · Man United 15% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Sunderland win 74% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 26, 2015-16
- Crystal Palace 1–2 Watford Feb 13, 2016 · replay 66% for Watford
- Swansea 0–1 Southampton Feb 13, 2016 · replay 67% for Southampton
- Norwich 2–2 West Ham Feb 13, 2016 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Chelsea 5–1 Newcastle Feb 13, 2016 · replay 94% for Chelsea
- Bournemouth 1–3 Stoke Feb 13, 2016 · replay 50% for Stoke
- Everton 0–1 West Brom Feb 13, 2016 · replay 40% for West Brom
- Man City 1–2 Tottenham Feb 14, 2016 · replay 39% for Tottenham
- Aston Villa 0–6 Liverpool Feb 14, 2016 · replay 98% for Liverpool
- Arsenal 2–1 Leicester Feb 14, 2016 · replay 78% for Arsenal