Matchday 26 · Premier League 2015-16 · February 13, 2016
Chelsea 5–1 Newcastle: who deserved to win?
Chelsea beat Newcastle 5–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Chelsea win 9 of 10, 1 end level. Chelsea made the better chances: 2.2 expected goals to 0.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Chelsea | 5 | 2.24 |
 Newcastle United | 1 | 0.65 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +6 Chelsea about even · −6 Newcastle
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Chelsea win 9, 1 ends level, Newcastle win 0.
- 1 CHE 1 NEW 0
- 2 CHE 2 NEW 0
- 3 CHE 3 NEW 1
- 4 CHE 2 NEW 0
- 5 CHE 3 NEW 0
- 6 CHE 3 NEW 0
- 7 CHE 4 NEW 0
- 8 CHE 5 NEW 0
- 9 CHE 6 NEW 0
- 10 CHE 1 NEW 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Chelsea win 90%, 7% end level, Newcastle win 3%. The line is what actually happened: Chelsea by 4.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Chelsea by 3+ | 53.8% |
| Chelsea by 2 | 20.8% |
| Chelsea by 1 | 15.5% |
| Draw | 7.3% |
| Newcastle by 1 | 2.1% |
| Newcastle by 2 | 0.3% |
| Newcastle by 3+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chelsea | 14 | 5 | 2.24 | +2.76 |
 Newcastle | 10 | 1 | 0.65 | +0.35 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 4' | Diego da Silva Costa scored from a shot | 0.11 |
| 8' | Pedro Eliezer Rodríguez Ledesma scored from a shot | 0.21 |
| 16' | Willian Borges da Silva scored from a shot | 0.36 |
| 58' | Pedro Eliezer Rodríguez Ledesma scored from a shot | 0.35 |
| 82' | Bertrand Isidore Traoré scored from a shot | 0.44 |
| 89' | Andros Townsend scored from a shot | 0.08 |
When it happened
Chelsea’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1' | Nemanja Matić didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% NEW |
| 2 | 4' | Diego da Silva Costa scored from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +19% CHE |
| 3 | 8' | Pedro Eliezer Rodríguez Ledesma scored from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +10% CHE |
| 4 | 10' | Jonjo Shelvey didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +0% CHE |
| 5 | 11' | Andros Townsend didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +0% CHE |
| 6 | 14' | Moussa Sissoko didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +0% CHE |
| 7 | 16' | Willian Borges da Silva scored from a shotFinishing · 36% chance | +3% CHE |
| 8 | 34' | Georginio Wijnaldum didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +0% CHE |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Chelsea 93% · draw 6% · Newcastle 2%
- Final margin
- Chelsea by 4
- Luck in goals
- 1.8 for Chelsea
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Chelsea by 2.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Chelsea 90% · draw 7% · Newcastle 3% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Chelsea win 94% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 26, 2015-16
- Crystal Palace 1–2 Watford Feb 13, 2016 · replay 66% for Watford
- Sunderland 2–1 Man United Feb 13, 2016 · replay 74% for Sunderland
- Swansea 0–1 Southampton Feb 13, 2016 · replay 67% for Southampton
- Norwich 2–2 West Ham Feb 13, 2016 · drawn; replay 26% draws
- Bournemouth 1–3 Stoke Feb 13, 2016 · replay 50% for Stoke
- Everton 0–1 West Brom Feb 13, 2016 · replay 40% for West Brom
- Man City 1–2 Tottenham Feb 14, 2016 · replay 39% for Tottenham
- Aston Villa 0–6 Liverpool Feb 14, 2016 · replay 98% for Liverpool
- Arsenal 2–1 Leicester Feb 14, 2016 · replay 78% for Arsenal