Matchday 26 · Premier League 2015-16 · February 13, 2016
Bournemouth 1–3 Stoke: who deserved to win?
Stoke beat Bournemouth 3–1, but the replays call it even: Stoke win 4 of 10, Bournemouth 3, 3 end level. Bournemouth made the better chances: 1.2 expected goals to 0.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 AFC Bournemouth | 1 | 1.23 |
 Stoke City | 3 | 0.67 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +50 Stoke lucky · −50 Bournemouth
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bournemouth win 3, 3 end level, Stoke win 4.
- 1 BOU 2 STK 1
- 2 BOU 1 STK 0
- 3 BOU 2 STK 0
- 4 BOU 0 STK 0
- 5 BOU 2 STK 2
- 6 BOU 0 STK 0
- 7 BOU 1 STK 3
- 8 BOU 0 STK 2
- 9 BOU 1 STK 2
- 10 BOU 0 STK 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Bournemouth win 34%, 32% end level, Stoke win 34%. The line is what actually happened: Stoke by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bournemouth by 3+ | 3.6% |
| Bournemouth by 2 | 9.6% |
| Bournemouth by 1 | 20.9% |
| Draw | 32.1% |
| Stoke by 1 | 20.9% |
| Stoke by 2 | 9.6% |
| Stoke by 3+ | 3.2% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Bournemouth | 11 | 1 | 1.23 | −0.23 |
 Stoke | 11 | 3 | 0.67 | +2.33 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 8' | Gilbert Gianelli Imbula Wanga scored from a shot | 0.02 |
| 51' | Ibrahim Afellay scored from a shot | 0.10 |
| 54' | José Luis Sanmartín Mato scored from a shot | 0.12 |
| 56' | Matt Ritchie scored from a shot | 0.06 |
| 65' | Matt Ritchie didn’t score from a shot | 0.43 |
When it happened
Bournemouth’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8' | The game turned hereGilbert Gianelli Imbula Wanga scored from a shotFinishing · 2% chance | +25% STK |
| 2 | 46' | Joshua King didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 27% chance | +9% STK |
| 3 | 46' | Matt Ritchie didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +3% STK |
| 4 | 51' | Ibrahim Afellay scored from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +14% STK |
| 5 | 54' | José Luis Sanmartín Mato scored from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +4% STK |
| 6 | 56' | Matt Ritchie scored from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +4% BOU |
| 7 | 60' | Benik Afobe didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +2% STK |
| 8 | 65' | Matt Ritchie didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 43% chance | +6% STK |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bournemouth 23% · draw 28% · Stoke 49%
- Final margin
- Stoke by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.9 for Stoke
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Stoke by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Bournemouth 34% · draw 32% · Stoke 34% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Stoke win 50% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 26 matches, 2015-16 · Bournemouth · Stoke
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