Matchday 26 · Premier League 2015-16 · February 13, 2016
Norwich 2–2 West Ham: who deserved to win?
Norwich and West Ham drew 2–2. Replayed with the way both teams played, Norwich win 3 of 10, West Ham 4, and 3 end level. West Ham made the better chances: 1.7 expected goals to 1.2.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Norwich City | 2 | 1.21 |
 West Ham United | 2 | 1.67 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +3 Norwich about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Norwich win 3, 3 end level, West Ham win 4.
- 1 NOR 3 WHU 2
- 2 NOR 1 WHU 0
- 3 NOR 3 WHU 1
- 4 NOR 1 WHU 1
- 5 NOR 1 WHU 1
- 6 NOR 1 WHU 1
- 7 NOR 2 WHU 5
- 8 NOR 0 WHU 2
- 9 NOR 0 WHU 1
- 10 NOR 1 WHU 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Norwich win 34%, 26% end level, West Ham win 40%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Norwich by 3+ | 5.8% |
| Norwich by 2 | 9.7% |
| Norwich by 1 | 18.8% |
| Draw | 26.0% |
| West Ham by 1 | 20.9% |
| West Ham by 2 | 11.8% |
| West Ham by 3+ | 7.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Norwich | 13 | 2 | 1.21 | +0.79 |
 West Ham | 12 | 2 | 1.67 | +0.33 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 53' | Robert Brady scored from a shot | 0.06 |
| 64' | Wes Hoolahan scored from a shot | 0.45 |
| 73' | Dimitri Payet scored from a shot | 0.48 |
| 75' | Mark Noble scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 89' | Emmanuel Emenike didn’t score from a shot | 0.50 |
When it happened
Norwich’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 53' | Robert Brady scored from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +29% NOR |
| 2 | 64' | Wes Hoolahan scored from a shotFinishing · 45% chance | +5% NOR |
| 3 | 73' | Dimitri Payet scored from a shotFinishing · 48% chance | +4% WHU |
| 4 | 75' | Mark Noble scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +37% WHU |
| 5 | 87' | Emmanuel Emenike didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +7% NOR |
| 6 | 89' | Emmanuel Emenike didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 50% chance | +25% NOR |
| 7 | 95' | Nathan Redmond didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +4% WHU |
| 8 | 95' | Sébastien Aymar Bassong Nguena didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +11% WHU |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Norwich 24% · draw 25% · West Ham 51%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.3 for Norwich
- Luck-adjusted margin
- West Ham by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Norwich 34% · draw 26% · West Ham 40% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 26 matches, 2015-16 · Norwich · West Ham
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