Matchday 28 · Premier League 2015-16 · March 1, 2016
Leicester 2–2 West Brom: who deserved to win?
Leicester and West Brom drew 2–2. Replayed with the way both teams played, Leicester win 6 of 10, West Brom 2, and 2 end level. Leicester made the better chances: 2.2 expected goals to 1.1. An own goal helped Leicester.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Leicester City | 2 | 2.18 |
 West Bromwich Albion | 2 | 1.15 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −18 Leicester about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Leicester win 6, 2 end level, West Brom win 2.
- 1 LEI 2 WBA 1
- 2 LEI 1 WBA 0
- 3 LEI 2 WBA 0
- 4 LEI 3 WBA 1
- 5 LEI 5 WBA 2
- 6 LEI 5 WBA 1
- 7 LEI 0 WBA 0
- 8 LEI 2 WBA 2
- 9 LEI 0 WBA 2
- 10 LEI 0 WBA 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Leicester win 57%, 22% end level, West Brom win 21%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Leicester by 3+ | 18.3% |
| Leicester by 2 | 16.8% |
| Leicester by 1 | 22.1% |
| Draw | 21.6% |
| West Brom by 1 | 12.9% |
| West Brom by 2 | 5.2% |
| West Brom by 3+ | 2.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Leicester | 23 | 1 | 2.18 | −1.18 |
 West Brom | 11 | 2 | 1.15 | +0.85 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 10' | José Salomón Rondón Giménez scored from a shot | 0.30 |
| 13' | Shinji Okazaki didn’t score from a shot | 0.39 |
| 45' | Andrew Philip King scored from a shot | 0.24 |
| 49' | Craig Gardner scored from a free kick | 0.07 |
When it happened
Leicester’s chance of winning
As low as 28% and as high as 86%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10' | José Salomón Rondón Giménez scored from a shotFinishing · 30% chance | +18% WBA |
| 2 | 13' | Shinji Okazaki didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 39% chance | +10% WBA |
| 3 | 30' | Danny Drinkwater didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chanceOwn goal by nan, for LeicesterOwn goals · own goals are rare: luck in full | +27% LEI |
| 4 | 45' | Andrew Philip King scored from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +22% LEI |
| 5 | 49' | Craig Gardner scored from a free kickFinishing · 7% chance | +28% WBA |
| 6 | 65' | Gareth McAuley didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +7% LEI |
| 7 | 65' | Craig Dawson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chanceJosé Salomón Rondón Giménez didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 29% chance | +13% LEI |
| 8 | 85' | Wes Morgan didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +7% WBA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Leicester 62% · draw 20% · West Brom 18%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- 0.6 for West Brom
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Leicester by 0.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Leicester 57% · draw 22% · West Brom 21% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 28 matches, 2015-16 · Leicester · West Brom
More from matchday 28, 2015-16
- Sunderland 2–2 Crystal Palace Mar 1, 2016 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Norwich 1–2 Chelsea Mar 1, 2016 · replay 61% for Chelsea
- Aston Villa 1–3 Everton Mar 1, 2016 · replay 90% for Everton
- Bournemouth 2–0 Southampton Mar 1, 2016 · replay 59% for Bournemouth
- Arsenal 1–2 Swansea Mar 2, 2016 · replay 46% for Swansea
- Liverpool 3–0 Man City Mar 2, 2016 · replay 85% for Liverpool
- Stoke 1–0 Newcastle Mar 2, 2016 · replay 48% for Stoke
- Man United 1–0 Watford Mar 2, 2016 · replay 26% for Man United
- West Ham 1–0 Tottenham Mar 2, 2016 · replay 51% for West Ham