Matchday 28 · Premier League 2015-16 · March 1, 2016
Sunderland 2–2 Crystal Palace: who deserved to win?
Sunderland and Crystal Palace drew 2–2. Replayed with the way both teams played, Sunderland win 4 of 10, Crystal Palace 3, and 3 end level. The chances were close to even (1.1 expected goals to 1.1).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Sunderland | 2 | 1.06 |
 Crystal Palace | 2 | 1.12 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −3 Sunderland about even for the draw
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sunderland win 4, 3 end level, Crystal Palace win 3.
- 1 SUN 1 CRY 0
- 2 SUN 1 CRY 0
- 3 SUN 3 CRY 1
- 4 SUN 3 CRY 0
- 5 SUN 0 CRY 0
- 6 SUN 1 CRY 1
- 7 SUN 0 CRY 0
- 8 SUN 0 CRY 2
- 9 SUN 2 CRY 3
- 10 SUN 1 CRY 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Sunderland win 40%, 27% end level, Crystal Palace win 33%. The line is what actually happened: Draw.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sunderland by 3+ | 5.8% |
| Sunderland by 2 | 11.6% |
| Sunderland by 1 | 22.4% |
| Draw | 27.3% |
| Crystal Palace by 1 | 19.9% |
| Crystal Palace by 2 | 8.8% |
| Crystal Palace by 3+ | 4.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sunderland | 19 | 2 | 1.06 | +0.94 |
 Crystal Palace | 14 | 2 | 1.12 | +0.88 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 35' | Dame N''Doye scored from a shot | 0.04 |
| 60' | Connor Wickham scored from a shot | 0.08 |
| 66' | Connor Wickham scored from a shot | 0.30 |
| 89' | Fabio Borini scored from a shot | 0.01 |
When it happened
Sunderland’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 88%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 32' | Jermain Defoe didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% CRY |
| 2 | 35' | Dame N''Doye scored from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +26% SUN |
| 3 | 45' | Connor Wickham didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +3% SUN |
| 4 | 46' | Younes Kaboul didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 30% chance | +3% CRY |
| 5 | 60' | Connor Wickham scored from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +31% CRY |
| 6 | 66' | Connor Wickham scored from a shotFinishing · 30% chance | +27% CRY |
| 7 | 89' | Fabio Borini scored from a shotFinishing · 1% chance | +49% SUN |
| 8 | 90' | Bakary Sako didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +4% SUN |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sunderland 33% · draw 29% · Crystal Palace 37%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in goals
- none
- Luck-adjusted margin
- even
- Replay with same day's form
- Sunderland 40% · draw 27% · Crystal Palace 33% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation).
All matchday 28 matches, 2015-16 · Sunderland · Crystal Palace
More from matchday 28, 2015-16
- Leicester 2–2 West Brom Mar 1, 2016 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Norwich 1–2 Chelsea Mar 1, 2016 · replay 61% for Chelsea
- Aston Villa 1–3 Everton Mar 1, 2016 · replay 90% for Everton
- Bournemouth 2–0 Southampton Mar 1, 2016 · replay 59% for Bournemouth
- Arsenal 1–2 Swansea Mar 2, 2016 · replay 46% for Swansea
- Liverpool 3–0 Man City Mar 2, 2016 · replay 85% for Liverpool
- Stoke 1–0 Newcastle Mar 2, 2016 · replay 48% for Stoke
- Man United 1–0 Watford Mar 2, 2016 · replay 26% for Man United
- West Ham 1–0 Tottenham Mar 2, 2016 · replay 51% for West Ham