Matchday 28 · Premier League 2015-16 · March 2, 2016
West Ham 1–0 Tottenham: who deserved to win?
West Ham beat Tottenham 1–0, but the replays call it even: West Ham win 4 of 10, Tottenham 3, 3 end level. Tottenham made the better chances: 1.1 expected goals to 0.8.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 West Ham United | 1 | 0.81 |
 Tottenham Hotspur | 0 | 1.13 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +49 West Ham lucky · −49 Tottenham
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. West Ham win 4, 3 end level, Tottenham win 3.
- 1 WHU 2 TOT 1
- 2 WHU 1 TOT 0
- 3 WHU 2 TOT 0
- 4 WHU 3 TOT 0
- 5 WHU 2 TOT 2
- 6 WHU 2 TOT 2
- 7 WHU 1 TOT 1
- 8 WHU 0 TOT 2
- 9 WHU 0 TOT 1
- 10 WHU 0 TOT 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
West Ham win 35%, 31% end level, Tottenham win 34%. The line is what actually happened: West Ham by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| West Ham by 3+ | 4.2% |
| West Ham by 2 | 9.4% |
| West Ham by 1 | 21.8% |
| Draw | 31.0% |
| Tottenham by 1 | 21.6% |
| Tottenham by 2 | 8.4% |
| Tottenham by 3+ | 3.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 West Ham | 14 | 1 | 0.81 | +0.19 |
 Tottenham | 9 | 0 | 1.13 | −1.13 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 6' | Michail Antonio scored from a shot | 0.04 |
| 60' | Harry Kane didn’t score from a shot | 0.54 |
| 66' | Harry Kane didn’t score from a shot | 0.38 |
When it happened
West Ham’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6' | Michail Antonio scored from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +21% WHU |
| 2 | 35' | Michail Antonio didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +1% TOT |
| 3 | 35' | James Collins didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +1% TOT |
| 4 | 52' | Erik Lamela didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% WHU |
| 5 | 60' | Harry Kane didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 54% chance | +18% WHU |
| 6 | 63' | Christian Dannemann Eriksen didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% WHU |
| 7 | 65' | Michail Antonio didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +2% TOT |
| 8 | 66' | Harry Kane didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 38% chance | +14% WHU |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
West Ham 25% · draw 30% · Tottenham 45%
- Final margin
- West Ham by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.0 for West Ham
- Luck-adjusted margin
- even
- Replay with same day's form
- West Ham 35% · draw 31% · Tottenham 34% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). West Ham win 51% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 28, 2015-16
- Sunderland 2–2 Crystal Palace Mar 1, 2016 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Leicester 2–2 West Brom Mar 1, 2016 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Norwich 1–2 Chelsea Mar 1, 2016 · replay 61% for Chelsea
- Aston Villa 1–3 Everton Mar 1, 2016 · replay 90% for Everton
- Bournemouth 2–0 Southampton Mar 1, 2016 · replay 59% for Bournemouth
- Arsenal 1–2 Swansea Mar 2, 2016 · replay 46% for Swansea
- Liverpool 3–0 Man City Mar 2, 2016 · replay 85% for Liverpool
- Stoke 1–0 Newcastle Mar 2, 2016 · replay 48% for Stoke
- Man United 1–0 Watford Mar 2, 2016 · replay 26% for Man United