Matchday 28 · Premier League 2015-16 · March 2, 2016
Arsenal 1–2 Swansea: who deserved to win?
Swansea beat Arsenal 2–1, but the replays call it even: Swansea win 3 of 10, Arsenal 4, 3 end level. The chances were close to even (1.3 expected goals to 1.2).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Arsenal | 1 | 1.33 |
 Swansea City | 2 | 1.17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +54 Swansea lucky · −54 Arsenal
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Arsenal win 4, 3 end level, Swansea win 3.
- 1 ARS 1 SWA 0
- 2 ARS 2 SWA 1
- 3 ARS 2 SWA 0
- 4 ARS 2 SWA 0
- 5 ARS 2 SWA 2
- 6 ARS 0 SWA 0
- 7 ARS 0 SWA 0
- 8 ARS 1 SWA 4
- 9 ARS 2 SWA 3
- 10 ARS 1 SWA 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Arsenal win 40%, 28% end level, Swansea win 32%. The line is what actually happened: Swansea by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Arsenal by 3+ | 7.0% |
| Arsenal by 2 | 12.0% |
| Arsenal by 1 | 21.4% |
| Draw | 27.8% |
| Swansea by 1 | 18.2% |
| Swansea by 2 | 9.2% |
| Swansea by 3+ | 4.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Arsenal | 17 | 1 | 1.33 | −0.33 |
 Swansea | 11 | 2 | 1.17 | +0.83 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 14' | Joel Nathaniel Campbell Samuels scored from a shot | 0.21 |
| 31' | Wayne Routledge scored from a shot | 0.28 |
| 73' | Ashley Williams scored from a shot | 0.50 |
When it happened
Arsenal’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 83%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2' | Olivier Giroud didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +4% SWA |
| 2 | 14' | Joel Nathaniel Campbell Samuels scored from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +18% ARS |
| 3 | 31' | Wayne Routledge scored from a shotFinishing · 28% chance | +19% SWA |
| 4 | 40' | Olivier Giroud didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 23% chance | +6% SWA |
| 5 | 64' | Gylfi Þór Sigurðsson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +7% ARS |
| 6 | 73' | The game turned hereAshley Williams scored from a shotFinishing · 50% chance | +21% SWA |
| 7 | 79' | Ignacio Monreal Eraso didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 10% chance | +4% SWA |
| 8 | 92' | Daniel Nii Tackie Mensah Welbeck didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +4% SWA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Arsenal 38% · draw 27% · Swansea 35%
- Final margin
- Swansea by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.9 for Swansea
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Swansea by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Arsenal 40% · draw 28% · Swansea 32% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Swansea win 46% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 28 matches, 2015-16 · Arsenal · Swansea
More from matchday 28, 2015-16
- Sunderland 2–2 Crystal Palace Mar 1, 2016 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Leicester 2–2 West Brom Mar 1, 2016 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Norwich 1–2 Chelsea Mar 1, 2016 · replay 61% for Chelsea
- Aston Villa 1–3 Everton Mar 1, 2016 · replay 90% for Everton
- Bournemouth 2–0 Southampton Mar 1, 2016 · replay 59% for Bournemouth
- Liverpool 3–0 Man City Mar 2, 2016 · replay 85% for Liverpool
- Stoke 1–0 Newcastle Mar 2, 2016 · replay 48% for Stoke
- Man United 1–0 Watford Mar 2, 2016 · replay 26% for Man United
- West Ham 1–0 Tottenham Mar 2, 2016 · replay 51% for West Ham