Matchday 28 · Premier League 2015-16 · March 1, 2016
Aston Villa 1–3 Everton: who deserved to win?
Everton beat Aston Villa 3–1, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Everton win 9 of 10, 1 end level. Everton made the better chances: 1.9 expected goals to 0.6.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Aston Villa | 1 | 0.63 |
 Everton | 3 | 1.87 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +10 Everton about even · −10 Aston Villa
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Aston Villa win 0, 1 ends level, Everton win 9.
- 1 AVL 0 EVE 0
- 2 AVL 0 EVE 5
- 3 AVL 0 EVE 4
- 4 AVL 0 EVE 3
- 5 AVL 1 EVE 4
- 6 AVL 1 EVE 3
- 7 AVL 0 EVE 2
- 8 AVL 0 EVE 2
- 9 AVL 1 EVE 2
- 10 AVL 0 EVE 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Aston Villa win 5%, 11% end level, Everton win 84%. The line is what actually happened: Everton by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Aston Villa by 3+ | 0.2% |
| Aston Villa by 2 | 0.7% |
| Aston Villa by 1 | 3.7% |
| Draw | 11.0% |
| Everton by 1 | 20.2% |
| Everton by 2 | 23.0% |
| Everton by 3+ | 41.1% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Aston Villa | 14 | 1 | 0.63 | +0.37 |
 Everton | 10 | 3 | 1.87 | +1.13 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 4' | José Ramiro Funes Mori scored from a shot | 0.09 |
| 29' | Aaron Lennon scored from a shot | 0.20 |
| 59' | Romelu Lukaku Menama scored from a shot | 0.85 |
| 78' | Rudy Gestede scored from a shot | 0.11 |
| 93' | José Ramiro Funes Mori didn’t score from a shot | 0.34 |
When it happened
Aston Villa’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4' | The game turned hereJosé Ramiro Funes Mori scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +23% EVE |
| 2 | 14' | Jordan Ayew didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% EVE |
| 3 | 23' | Idrissa Gana Gueye didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 2% chance | +1% EVE |
| 4 | 23' | Ashley Westwood didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% EVE |
| 5 | 25' | Micah Richards didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% EVE |
| 6 | 27' | Leandro Bacuna didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 2% chance | +1% EVE |
| 7 | 29' | Aaron Lennon scored from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +14% EVE |
| 8 | 78' | Rudy Gestede scored from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +1% AVL |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Aston Villa 2% · draw 6% · Everton 91%
- Final margin
- Everton by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.6 for Everton
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Everton by 1.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Aston Villa 5% · draw 11% · Everton 84% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Everton win 90% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 28, 2015-16
- Sunderland 2–2 Crystal Palace Mar 1, 2016 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Leicester 2–2 West Brom Mar 1, 2016 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Norwich 1–2 Chelsea Mar 1, 2016 · replay 61% for Chelsea
- Bournemouth 2–0 Southampton Mar 1, 2016 · replay 59% for Bournemouth
- Arsenal 1–2 Swansea Mar 2, 2016 · replay 46% for Swansea
- Liverpool 3–0 Man City Mar 2, 2016 · replay 85% for Liverpool
- Stoke 1–0 Newcastle Mar 2, 2016 · replay 48% for Stoke
- Man United 1–0 Watford Mar 2, 2016 · replay 26% for Man United
- West Ham 1–0 Tottenham Mar 2, 2016 · replay 51% for West Ham