Matchday 28 · Premier League 2015-16 · March 2, 2016
Man United 1–0 Watford: who deserved to win?
Man United beat Watford 1–0, but the replays lean toward Watford: 6 wins in 10 to Man United’s 2, 2 end level. Watford made the better chances: 1.9 expected goals to 0.7.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Manchester United | 1 | 0.72 |
 Watford | 0 | 1.86 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +74 Man United very lucky · −74 Watford
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Man United win 2, 2 end level, Watford win 6.
- 1 MUN 2 WAT 1
- 2 MUN 2 WAT 0
- 3 MUN 1 WAT 1
- 4 MUN 1 WAT 1
- 5 MUN 0 WAT 4
- 6 MUN 0 WAT 3
- 7 MUN 0 WAT 2
- 8 MUN 1 WAT 3
- 9 MUN 1 WAT 2
- 10 MUN 3 WAT 4
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Man United win 15%, 21% end level, Watford win 63%. The line is what actually happened: Man United by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Man United by 3+ | 0.9% |
| Man United by 2 | 3.9% |
| Man United by 1 | 10.5% |
| Draw | 21.3% |
| Watford by 1 | 24.6% |
| Watford by 2 | 20.0% |
| Watford by 3+ | 18.9% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Man United | 13 | 1 | 0.72 | +0.28 |
 Watford | 14 | 0 | 1.86 | −1.86 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 41' | Odion Jude Ighalo didn’t score from a shot | 0.53 |
| 82' | Juan Manuel Mata García scored from a free kick | 0.07 |
When it happened
Man United’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8' | Anthony Martial didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +3% WAT |
| 2 | 26' | Odion Jude Ighalo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +6% MUN |
| 3 | 36' | Odion Jude Ighalo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 26% chance | +8% MUN |
| 4 | 41' | Odion Jude Ighalo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 53% chance | +17% MUN |
| 5 | 50' | Miguel Ángel Britos Cabrera didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +4% MUN |
| 6 | 78' | Nordin Amrabat didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +6% MUN |
| 7 | 78' | Sebastian Prödl didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +8% MUN |
| 8 | 82' | Juan Manuel Mata García scored from a free kickFinishing · 7% chance | +41% MUN |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Man United 14% · draw 22% · Watford 65%
- Final margin
- Man United by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.6 for Man United
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Watford by 0.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Man United 15% · draw 21% · Watford 63% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Man United win 26% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 28 matches, 2015-16 · Man United · Watford
More from matchday 28, 2015-16
- Sunderland 2–2 Crystal Palace Mar 1, 2016 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Leicester 2–2 West Brom Mar 1, 2016 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Norwich 1–2 Chelsea Mar 1, 2016 · replay 61% for Chelsea
- Aston Villa 1–3 Everton Mar 1, 2016 · replay 90% for Everton
- Bournemouth 2–0 Southampton Mar 1, 2016 · replay 59% for Bournemouth
- Arsenal 1–2 Swansea Mar 2, 2016 · replay 46% for Swansea
- Liverpool 3–0 Man City Mar 2, 2016 · replay 85% for Liverpool
- Stoke 1–0 Newcastle Mar 2, 2016 · replay 48% for Stoke
- West Ham 1–0 Tottenham Mar 2, 2016 · replay 51% for West Ham