Matchday 28 · Premier League 2015-16 · March 1, 2016
Norwich 1–2 Chelsea: who deserved to win?
Chelsea beat Norwich 2–1, and the replays lean Chelsea’s way: 5 wins in 10, 2 for Norwich, 3 end level. The chances were close to even (1.1 expected goals to 1.0).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Norwich City | 1 | 1.08 |
 Chelsea | 2 | 0.99 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +39 Chelsea lucky · −39 Norwich
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Norwich win 2, 3 end level, Chelsea win 5.
- 1 NOR 2 CHE 1
- 2 NOR 2 CHE 0
- 3 NOR 0 CHE 0
- 4 NOR 1 CHE 1
- 5 NOR 0 CHE 0
- 6 NOR 1 CHE 4
- 7 NOR 0 CHE 2
- 8 NOR 0 CHE 1
- 9 NOR 0 CHE 1
- 10 NOR 0 CHE 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Norwich win 25%, 29% end level, Chelsea win 47%. The line is what actually happened: Chelsea by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Norwich by 3+ | 1.6% |
| Norwich by 2 | 6.5% |
| Norwich by 1 | 16.5% |
| Draw | 28.7% |
| Chelsea by 1 | 25.0% |
| Chelsea by 2 | 14.1% |
| Chelsea by 3+ | 7.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Norwich | 13 | 1 | 1.08 | −0.08 |
 Chelsea | 10 | 2 | 0.99 | +1.01 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 0' | Robert Kenedy Nunes do Nascimento scored from a shot | 0.06 |
| 45' | Diego da Silva Costa scored from a shot | 0.36 |
| 52' | Cameron Jerome didn’t score from a shot | 0.31 |
| 67' | Nathan Redmond scored from a shot | 0.09 |
When it happened
Norwich’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0' | The game turned hereRobert Kenedy Nunes do Nascimento scored from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +23% CHE |
| 2 | 45' | Diego da Silva Costa scored from a shotFinishing · 36% chance | +11% CHE |
| 3 | 48' | Cameron Jerome didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +2% CHE |
| 4 | 52' | Cameron Jerome didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 31% chance | +5% CHE |
| 5 | 67' | Nathan Redmond scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +11% NOR |
| 6 | 73' | Cameron Jerome didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +6% CHE |
| 7 | 87' | Nathan Redmond didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% CHE |
| 8 | 93' | Nathan Redmond didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% CHE |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Norwich 36% · draw 29% · Chelsea 35%
- Final margin
- Chelsea by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.8 for Chelsea
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Chelsea by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Norwich 25% · draw 29% · Chelsea 47% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Chelsea win 61% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 28 matches, 2015-16 · Norwich · Chelsea
More from matchday 28, 2015-16
- Sunderland 2–2 Crystal Palace Mar 1, 2016 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Leicester 2–2 West Brom Mar 1, 2016 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Aston Villa 1–3 Everton Mar 1, 2016 · replay 90% for Everton
- Bournemouth 2–0 Southampton Mar 1, 2016 · replay 59% for Bournemouth
- Arsenal 1–2 Swansea Mar 2, 2016 · replay 46% for Swansea
- Liverpool 3–0 Man City Mar 2, 2016 · replay 85% for Liverpool
- Stoke 1–0 Newcastle Mar 2, 2016 · replay 48% for Stoke
- Man United 1–0 Watford Mar 2, 2016 · replay 26% for Man United
- West Ham 1–0 Tottenham Mar 2, 2016 · replay 51% for West Ham