Matchday 28 · Premier League 2015-16 · March 2, 2016
Liverpool 3–0 Man City: who deserved to win?
Liverpool beat Man City 3–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams played, Liverpool win 7 of 10, 2 end level. Liverpool made the better chances: 1.1 expected goals to 0.2.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Liverpool | 3 | 1.12 |
 Manchester City | 0 | 0.21 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +15 Liverpool about even · −15 Man City
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Liverpool win 7, 2 end level, Man City win 1.
- 1 LIV 1 MCI 0
- 2 LIV 2 MCI 1
- 3 LIV 1 MCI 0
- 4 LIV 2 MCI 0
- 5 LIV 2 MCI 0
- 6 LIV 2 MCI 0
- 7 LIV 3 MCI 0
- 8 LIV 0 MCI 0
- 9 LIV 0 MCI 0
- 10 LIV 0 MCI 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Liverpool win 74%, 22% end level, Man City win 5%. The line is what actually happened: Liverpool by 3.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Liverpool by 3+ | 18.1% |
| Liverpool by 2 | 23.8% |
| Liverpool by 1 | 32.1% |
| Draw | 21.5% |
| Man City by 1 | 4.1% |
| Man City by 2 | 0.4% |
| Man City by 3+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Liverpool | 11 | 3 | 1.12 | +1.88 |
 Man City | 4 | 0 | 0.21 | −0.21 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 33' | Adam David Lallana scored from a shot | 0.03 |
| 40' | James Philip Milner scored from a shot | 0.33 |
| 56' | Roberto Firmino Barbosa de Oliveira scored from a shot | 0.49 |
When it happened
Liverpool’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11' | Fernando Luiz Rosa didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% LIV |
| 2 | 16' | James Philip Milner didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +1% MCI |
| 3 | 21' | Roberto Firmino Barbosa de Oliveira didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +1% MCI |
| 4 | 27' | Raheem Sterling didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 1% chance | +0% LIV |
| 5 | 33' | Adam David Lallana scored from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +26% LIV |
| 6 | 40' | James Philip Milner scored from a shotFinishing · 33% chance | +8% LIV |
| 7 | 45' | Sergio Leonel Agüero del Castillo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +1% LIV |
| 8 | 56' | Roberto Firmino Barbosa de Oliveira scored from a shotFinishing · 49% chance | +1% LIV |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Liverpool 93% · draw 6% · Man City 1%
- Final margin
- Liverpool by 3
- Luck in goals
- 1.6 for Liverpool
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Liverpool by 1.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Liverpool 74% · draw 22% · Man City 5% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Liverpool win 85% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 28, 2015-16
- Sunderland 2–2 Crystal Palace Mar 1, 2016 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Leicester 2–2 West Brom Mar 1, 2016 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Norwich 1–2 Chelsea Mar 1, 2016 · replay 61% for Chelsea
- Aston Villa 1–3 Everton Mar 1, 2016 · replay 90% for Everton
- Bournemouth 2–0 Southampton Mar 1, 2016 · replay 59% for Bournemouth
- Arsenal 1–2 Swansea Mar 2, 2016 · replay 46% for Swansea
- Stoke 1–0 Newcastle Mar 2, 2016 · replay 48% for Stoke
- Man United 1–0 Watford Mar 2, 2016 · replay 26% for Man United
- West Ham 1–0 Tottenham Mar 2, 2016 · replay 51% for West Ham