Matchday 28 · Premier League 2015-16 · March 2, 2016
Stoke 1–0 Newcastle: who deserved to win?
Stoke beat Newcastle 1–0, but the replays call it even: Stoke win 2 of 10, Newcastle 3, 5 end level. The chances were close to even (0.3 expected goals to 0.4).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Stoke City | 1 | 0.28 |
 Newcastle United | 0 | 0.40 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +52 Stoke lucky · −52 Newcastle
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Stoke win 2, 5 end level, Newcastle win 3.
- 1 STK 1 NEW 0
- 2 STK 1 NEW 0
- 3 STK 0 NEW 0
- 4 STK 0 NEW 0
- 5 STK 0 NEW 0
- 6 STK 0 NEW 0
- 7 STK 0 NEW 0
- 8 STK 0 NEW 2
- 9 STK 0 NEW 1
- 10 STK 0 NEW 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Stoke win 21%, 54% end level, Newcastle win 25%. The line is what actually happened: Stoke by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Stoke by 3+ | 0.3% |
| Stoke by 2 | 2.6% |
| Stoke by 1 | 18.2% |
| Draw | 54.2% |
| Newcastle by 1 | 20.3% |
| Newcastle by 2 | 4.0% |
| Newcastle by 3+ | 0.5% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Stoke | 9 | 1 | 0.28 | +0.72 |
 Newcastle | 5 | 0 | 0.40 | −0.40 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 79' | Xherdan Shaqiri scored from a shot | 0.03 |
When it happened
Stoke’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4' | Aleksandar Mitrović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% STK |
| 2 | 4' | Jonjo Shelvey didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +2% STK |
| 3 | 20' | Aleksandar Mitrović didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 2% chance | +1% STK |
| 4 | 53' | Ibrahim Afellay didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% NEW |
| 5 | 65' | Jonathan Walters didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +2% NEW |
| 6 | 79' | Xherdan Shaqiri scored from a shotFinishing · 3% chance | +41% STK |
| 7 | 89' | Emmanuel Rivière didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +5% STK |
| 8 | 92' | Seydou Doumbia didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 15% chance | +7% STK |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Stoke 19% · draw 52% · Newcastle 29%
- Final margin
- Stoke by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.8 for Stoke
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Stoke by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Stoke 21% · draw 54% · Newcastle 25% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Stoke win 48% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 28 matches, 2015-16 · Stoke · Newcastle
More from matchday 28, 2015-16
- Sunderland 2–2 Crystal Palace Mar 1, 2016 · drawn; replay 27% draws
- Leicester 2–2 West Brom Mar 1, 2016 · drawn; replay 22% draws
- Norwich 1–2 Chelsea Mar 1, 2016 · replay 61% for Chelsea
- Aston Villa 1–3 Everton Mar 1, 2016 · replay 90% for Everton
- Bournemouth 2–0 Southampton Mar 1, 2016 · replay 59% for Bournemouth
- Arsenal 1–2 Swansea Mar 2, 2016 · replay 46% for Swansea
- Liverpool 3–0 Man City Mar 2, 2016 · replay 85% for Liverpool
- Man United 1–0 Watford Mar 2, 2016 · replay 26% for Man United
- West Ham 1–0 Tottenham Mar 2, 2016 · replay 51% for West Ham