Matchday 28 · Premier League 2015-16 · March 1, 2016
Bournemouth 2–0 Southampton: who deserved to win?
Bournemouth beat Southampton 2–0, and the replays lean Bournemouth’s way: 4 wins in 10, 2 for Southampton, 4 end level. The chances were close to even (0.7 expected goals to 0.5).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 AFC Bournemouth | 2 | 0.71 |
 Southampton | 0 | 0.53 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +41 Bournemouth lucky · −41 Southampton
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bournemouth win 4, 4 end level, Southampton win 2.
- 1 BOU 2 SOU 1
- 2 BOU 1 SOU 0
- 3 BOU 2 SOU 1
- 4 BOU 3 SOU 1
- 5 BOU 0 SOU 0
- 6 BOU 1 SOU 1
- 7 BOU 0 SOU 0
- 8 BOU 0 SOU 0
- 9 BOU 0 SOU 2
- 10 BOU 0 SOU 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Bournemouth win 40%, 39% end level, Southampton win 21%. The line is what actually happened: Bournemouth by 2.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bournemouth by 3+ | 3.1% |
| Bournemouth by 2 | 10.7% |
| Bournemouth by 1 | 26.0% |
| Draw | 38.9% |
| Southampton by 1 | 16.8% |
| Southampton by 2 | 3.7% |
| Southampton by 3+ | 0.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Bournemouth | 10 | 2 | 0.71 | +1.29 |
 Southampton | 6 | 0 | 0.53 | −0.53 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 30' | Steve Cook scored from a shot | 0.24 |
| 78' | Benik Afobe scored from a shot | 0.16 |
When it happened
Bournemouth’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0' | Matt Ritchie didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +1% SOU |
| 2 | 2' | Joshua King didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +2% SOU |
| 3 | 5' | Charlie Austin didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% BOU |
| 4 | 16' | Sadio Mané didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +3% BOU |
| 5 | 23' | Shane Long didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% BOU |
| 6 | 25' | Matt Ritchie didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 4% chance | +1% SOU |
| 7 | 30' | Steve Cook scored from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +20% BOU |
| 8 | 78' | Benik Afobe scored from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +5% BOU |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bournemouth 75% · draw 19% · Southampton 6%
- Final margin
- Bournemouth by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.4 for Bournemouth
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Bournemouth by 0.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Bournemouth 40% · draw 39% · Southampton 21% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Bournemouth win 59% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 28 matches, 2015-16 · Bournemouth · Southampton
More from matchday 28, 2015-16
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