Matchday 29 · Premier League 2015-16 · March 5, 2016
Swansea 1–0 Norwich: who deserved to win?
Swansea beat Norwich 1–0, but the replays call it even: Swansea win 3 of 10, Norwich 3, 4 end level. The chances were close to even (0.5 expected goals to 0.7).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Swansea City | 1 | 0.48 |
 Norwich City | 0 | 0.70 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +52 Swansea lucky · −52 Norwich
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Swansea win 3, 4 end level, Norwich win 3.
- 1 SWA 1 NOR 0
- 2 SWA 1 NOR 0
- 3 SWA 3 NOR 1
- 4 SWA 0 NOR 0
- 5 SWA 1 NOR 1
- 6 SWA 1 NOR 1
- 7 SWA 0 NOR 0
- 8 SWA 0 NOR 2
- 9 SWA 0 NOR 1
- 10 SWA 0 NOR 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Swansea win 27%, 42% end level, Norwich win 31%. The line is what actually happened: Swansea by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Swansea by 3+ | 1.3% |
| Swansea by 2 | 5.7% |
| Swansea by 1 | 19.7% |
| Draw | 42.1% |
| Norwich by 1 | 22.3% |
| Norwich by 2 | 7.0% |
| Norwich by 3+ | 1.8% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Swansea | 10 | 1 | 0.48 | +0.52 |
 Norwich | 8 | 0 | 0.70 | −0.70 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 60' | Gylfi Þór Sigurðsson scored from a shot | 0.09 |
When it happened
Swansea’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 57' | Modou Barrow didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +4% NOR |
| 2 | 60' | Gylfi Þór Sigurðsson scored from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +31% SWA |
| 3 | 80' | Dieumerci Mbokani Bezua didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% SWA |
| 4 | 87' | Wes Hoolahan didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +10% SWA |
| 5 | 87' | Nathan Redmond didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +4% SWA |
| 6 | 87' | Nathan Redmond didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +4% SWA |
| 7 | 88' | Patrick Bamford didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 14% chance | +7% SWA |
| 8 | 90' | Patrick Bamford didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 6% chance | +3% SWA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Swansea 23% · draw 39% · Norwich 38%
- Final margin
- Swansea by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.9 for Swansea
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Swansea by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Swansea 27% · draw 42% · Norwich 31% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Swansea win 48% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 29 matches, 2015-16 · Swansea · Norwich
More from matchday 29, 2015-16
- Chelsea 1–1 Stoke Mar 5, 2016 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Southampton 1–1 Sunderland Mar 5, 2016 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Newcastle 1–3 Bournemouth Mar 5, 2016 · replay 61% for Bournemouth
- Man City 4–0 Aston Villa Mar 5, 2016 · replay 97% for Man City
- Everton 2–3 West Ham Mar 5, 2016 · replay 32% for West Ham
- Watford 0–1 Leicester Mar 5, 2016 · replay 68% for Leicester
- Tottenham 2–2 Arsenal Mar 5, 2016 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- West Brom 1–0 Man United Mar 6, 2016 · replay 61% for West Brom
- Crystal Palace 1–2 Liverpool Mar 6, 2016 · replay 61% for Liverpool