Matchday 29 · Premier League 2015-16 · March 5, 2016
Watford 0–1 Leicester: who deserved to win?
Leicester beat Watford 1–0, and the replays lean Leicester’s way: 6 wins in 10, 2 for Watford, 2 end level. Leicester made the better chances: 1.5 expected goals to 1.0.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Watford | 0 | 0.96 |
 Leicester City | 1 | 1.54 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +32 Leicester lucky · −32 Watford
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Watford win 2, 2 end level, Leicester win 6.
- 1 WAT 2 LEI 1
- 2 WAT 2 LEI 0
- 3 WAT 1 LEI 1
- 4 WAT 1 LEI 1
- 5 WAT 0 LEI 4
- 6 WAT 1 LEI 3
- 7 WAT 0 LEI 2
- 8 WAT 0 LEI 1
- 9 WAT 0 LEI 1
- 10 WAT 1 LEI 2
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Watford win 21%, 23% end level, Leicester win 56%. The line is what actually happened: Leicester by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Watford by 3+ | 1.5% |
| Watford by 2 | 5.3% |
| Watford by 1 | 13.9% |
| Draw | 23.1% |
| Leicester by 1 | 24.1% |
| Leicester by 2 | 17.8% |
| Leicester by 3+ | 14.3% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Watford | 11 | 0 | 0.96 | −0.96 |
 Leicester | 14 | 1 | 1.54 | −0.54 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 22' | Jamie Vardy didn’t score from a shot | 0.61 |
| 55' | Riyad Mahrez scored from a shot | 0.05 |
| 79' | Odion Jude Ighalo didn’t score from a shot | 0.39 |
When it happened
Watford’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10' | Nathan Aké didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 16% chance | +4% LEI |
| 2 | 22' | Jamie Vardy didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 61% chance | +17% WAT |
| 3 | 26' | Nordin Amrabat didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% LEI |
| 4 | 26' | Troy Deeney didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 9% chance | +2% LEI |
| 5 | 41' | Wes Morgan didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% WAT |
| 6 | 55' | The game turned hereRiyad Mahrez scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +33% LEI |
| 7 | 58' | Robert Huth didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +3% WAT |
| 8 | 79' | Odion Jude Ighalo didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 39% chance | +17% LEI |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Watford 21% · draw 27% · Leicester 52%
- Final margin
- Leicester by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.3 for Leicester
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Leicester by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Watford 21% · draw 23% · Leicester 56% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). Leicester win 68% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 29 matches, 2015-16 · Watford · Leicester
More from matchday 29, 2015-16
- Chelsea 1–1 Stoke Mar 5, 2016 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Swansea 1–0 Norwich Mar 5, 2016 · replay 48% for Swansea
- Southampton 1–1 Sunderland Mar 5, 2016 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Newcastle 1–3 Bournemouth Mar 5, 2016 · replay 61% for Bournemouth
- Man City 4–0 Aston Villa Mar 5, 2016 · replay 97% for Man City
- Everton 2–3 West Ham Mar 5, 2016 · replay 32% for West Ham
- Tottenham 2–2 Arsenal Mar 5, 2016 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- West Brom 1–0 Man United Mar 6, 2016 · replay 61% for West Brom
- Crystal Palace 1–2 Liverpool Mar 6, 2016 · replay 61% for Liverpool