Matchday 29 · Premier League 2015-16 · March 5, 2016
Everton 2–3 West Ham: who deserved to win?
West Ham beat Everton 3–2, but the replays lean toward Everton: 6 wins in 10 to West Ham’s 2, 2 end level. The chances were close to even (1.7 expected goals to 1.7).
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 Everton | 2 | 1.71 |
 West Ham United | 3 | 1.69 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +68 West Ham very lucky · −68 Everton
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Everton win 6, 2 end level, West Ham win 2.
- 1 EVE 1 WHU 0
- 2 EVE 5 WHU 4
- 3 EVE 6 WHU 4
- 4 EVE 4 WHU 2
- 5 EVE 5 WHU 2
- 6 EVE 4 WHU 0
- 7 EVE 2 WHU 2
- 8 EVE 3 WHU 3
- 9 EVE 0 WHU 2
- 10 EVE 0 WHU 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
Everton win 58%, 19% end level, West Ham win 23%. The line is what actually happened: West Ham by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Everton by 3+ | 19.3% |
| Everton by 2 | 16.6% |
| Everton by 1 | 22.0% |
| Draw | 19.4% |
| West Ham by 1 | 12.6% |
| West Ham by 2 | 6.5% |
| West Ham by 3+ | 3.6% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Everton | 15 (1 pen) | 2 | 1.72 | +0.28 |
 West Ham | 17 | 3 | 1.69 | +1.31 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 12' | Romelu Lukaku Menama scored from a shot | 0.05 |
| 55' | Aaron Lennon scored from a shot | 0.21 |
| 68' | Romelu Lukaku Menama didn’t score from a penalty | 0.78 |
| 77' | Michail Antonio scored from a shot | 0.24 |
| 80' | Diafra Sakho scored from a shot | 0.17 |
| 89' | Dimitri Payet scored from a shot | 0.22 |
When it happened
Everton’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12' | Romelu Lukaku Menama scored from a shotFinishing · 5% chance | +22% EVE |
| 2 | 29' | Angelo Obinze Ogbonna didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 20% chance | +5% EVE |
| 3 | 41' | Emmanuel Emenike didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +7% EVE |
| 4 | 55' | Aaron Lennon scored from a shotFinishing · 21% chance | +9% EVE |
| 5 | 77' | Michail Antonio scored from a shotFinishing · 24% chance | +4% WHU |
| 6 | 80' | Diafra Sakho scored from a shotFinishing · 17% chance | +36% WHU |
| 7 | 87' | Andy Carroll didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 12% chance | +6% EVE |
| 8 | 89' | The game turned hereDimitri Payet scored from a shotFinishing · 22% chance | +39% WHU |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Everton 38% · draw 25% · West Ham 37%
- Final margin
- West Ham by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.8 for West Ham
- Luck-adjusted margin
- West Ham by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Everton 58% · draw 19% · West Ham 23% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). West Ham win 32% of replays (a draw counted as half).
More from matchday 29, 2015-16
- Chelsea 1–1 Stoke Mar 5, 2016 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Swansea 1–0 Norwich Mar 5, 2016 · replay 48% for Swansea
- Southampton 1–1 Sunderland Mar 5, 2016 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Newcastle 1–3 Bournemouth Mar 5, 2016 · replay 61% for Bournemouth
- Man City 4–0 Aston Villa Mar 5, 2016 · replay 97% for Man City
- Watford 0–1 Leicester Mar 5, 2016 · replay 68% for Leicester
- Tottenham 2–2 Arsenal Mar 5, 2016 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- West Brom 1–0 Man United Mar 6, 2016 · replay 61% for West Brom
- Crystal Palace 1–2 Liverpool Mar 6, 2016 · replay 61% for Liverpool