Matchday 29 · Premier League 2015-16 · March 6, 2016
West Brom 1–0 Man United: who deserved to win?
West Brom beat Man United 1–0, and the replays lean West Brom’s way: 4 wins in 10, 2 for Man United, 4 end level. West Brom made the better chances: 0.7 expected goals to 0.4.
Full time
| Team | Goals | xG |
|---|---|---|
 West Bromwich Albion | 1 | 0.72 |
 Manchester United | 0 | 0.38 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +39 West Brom lucky · −39 Man United
Each team’s own shots from this match, resampled into new matches 4,000 times, each a goal at its expected-goals chance: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. West Brom win 4, 4 end level, Man United win 2.
- 1 WBA 2 MUN 1
- 2 WBA 1 MUN 0
- 3 WBA 1 MUN 0
- 4 WBA 2 MUN 0
- 5 WBA 1 MUN 1
- 6 WBA 0 MUN 0
- 7 WBA 0 MUN 0
- 8 WBA 0 MUN 0
- 9 WBA 0 MUN 1
- 10 WBA 0 MUN 1
The narrowest view of luck
The same match, with only the coin flips re-rolled: every shot kept where and how it was taken, its outcome redrawn at its chance (75% of finishing counts as luck), own goals at the league’s rate.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
There is no betting line for this match, and no forecast from before kickoff: matches of past seasons are replayed, not forecast.
How 4,000 replays of the 90 minutes ended
West Brom win 40%, 41% end level, Man United win 19%. The line is what actually happened: West Brom by 1.
Show as a table
| After 90 minutes in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| West Brom by 3+ | 2.6% |
| West Brom by 2 | 10.3% |
| West Brom by 1 | 27.2% |
| Draw | 41.0% |
| Man United by 1 | 15.3% |
| Man United by 2 | 3.0% |
| Man United by 3+ | 0.4% |
Where the luck was
| Finishing | Shots | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 West Brom | 9 | 1 | 0.72 | +0.28 |
 Man United | 7 | 0 | 0.38 | −0.38 |
Own goals aren’t shots, so they’re counted on their own. A side above expected finished better than its chances, or met a goalkeeper on a bad day; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
The big chances, and every goal
| Minute | Chance | xG |
|---|---|---|
| 65' | José Salomón Rondón Giménez scored from a shot | 0.18 |
When it happened
West Brom’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8' | Craig Dawson didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 19% chance | +4% MUN |
| 2 | 16' | Saido Berahino didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 8% chance | +2% MUN |
| 3 | 33' | Saido Berahino didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 11% chance | +3% MUN |
| 4 | 38' | Anthony Martial didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 13% chance | +4% WBA |
| 5 | 50' | Marcus Rashford didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% WBA |
| 6 | 58' | Ander Herrera Agüera didn’t score from a free kickFinishing · 8% chance | +3% WBA |
| 7 | 60' | Saido Berahino didn’t score from a shotFinishing · 7% chance | +2% MUN |
| 8 | 65' | José Salomón Rondón Giménez scored from a shotFinishing · 18% chance | +29% WBA |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do? Change how much of it counts as luck and the coin-flip replay of the 90 minutes reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
West Brom 42% · draw 41% · Man United 17%
- Final margin
- West Brom by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for West Brom
- Luck-adjusted margin
- West Brom by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- West Brom 40% · draw 41% · Man United 19% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Expected goals per shot from StatsBomb’s open data; the replays, the in-game win probability and the luck shares are our own models, fitted and tested on every shot of four full league seasons and four tournaments, these matches included (methodology and validation). West Brom win 61% of replays (a draw counted as half).
All matchday 29 matches, 2015-16 · West Brom · Man United
More from matchday 29, 2015-16
- Chelsea 1–1 Stoke Mar 5, 2016 · drawn; replay 24% draws
- Swansea 1–0 Norwich Mar 5, 2016 · replay 48% for Swansea
- Southampton 1–1 Sunderland Mar 5, 2016 · drawn; replay 25% draws
- Newcastle 1–3 Bournemouth Mar 5, 2016 · replay 61% for Bournemouth
- Man City 4–0 Aston Villa Mar 5, 2016 · replay 97% for Man City
- Everton 2–3 West Ham Mar 5, 2016 · replay 32% for West Ham
- Watford 0–1 Leicester Mar 5, 2016 · replay 68% for Leicester
- Tottenham 2–2 Arsenal Mar 5, 2016 · drawn; replay 29% draws
- Crystal Palace 1–2 Liverpool Mar 6, 2016 · replay 61% for Liverpool